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Pies4shaw wrote:Assuming that is right and giving Ripon to the Libs, the numbers would be ALP 55, LNP 27, Greens 3 and Independents 3.
The LNP will need to gain 18 seats at the 2022 election to govern without minor parties. There are other ways to cut the figures, of course, but the following looks to me to be a reasonable estimate of the present position.
Assuming they can recover all 3 seats held by independents (essentially as National Party seats), they will need on present percentages (which, of course, will change with a redistribution before the next election) to achieve a uniform (or equivalent) 7% swing across the board to take at least a further 14 seats directly from the ALP (it is almost inconceivable that they can take either of Brunswick or Melbourne without a coup), then take either Prahran from the Greens or Eltham from the ALP as well (both are on a 7.2% margin). The Nats 6 seats look safe (present margins are between 12.6% and 24%). On the other hand, the Libs hold 9 seats by 1.7% or less and, as things stand, none by more than 7.3%. By contrast, the ALP holds 40 seats by at least 8.5%.
Thus, although the Liberal vote probably bottomed-out at this election, they wouldn't want a further 2% slide - or they could easily be cut to just 12 seats in the Assembly from 2022.
Just an update - the VEC completed preference distribution for Ripon with the ALP 31 votes ahead. There is "further scrutiny of first preference ballot papers and informal ballot papers" in that electoral district scheduled for today.
When I was at uni, the first time, there was no internet. When I went the second time, there was still no internet. When I went the third time, there was just barely internet - the search engine was something called Trumpeter Winsock (?) (which has gone the way of the dodo) and there were no pictures (of anything much) to download.
Geeze in 1981 we were feeding all these marked cards, like tattslotto cards into some massive thing someone called a computer. Still not sure what it did!
Bruce Gonsalves wrote:Geeze in 1981 we were feeding all these marked cards, like tattslotto cards into some massive thing someone called a computer. Still not sure what it did!
Data Processing was the name of the subject.
Yes. There was an EDP Division full of "data operators". Punch cards and overnight batch runs. We thought it was the new world.
