Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

[eddiesmith]

Pfizer is working on a Vaccine that Suppose to help people NOT get the Omnicon Variant

What’s the point? They’ll never develop a vaccine to stop people getting Covid and even if they develop one to better protect against Omicron, by the time they do it’ll have been replaced by different variants.

[Pies4shaw]

Reported today in Victoria:

Hospital: 542
ICU: 71
Ventilated: 27
Deaths: 21

and in NSW:

- 1,906 hospitalisations
- 132 people in ICU
- 20 deaths

[What'sinaname]

Pfizer is working on a Vaccine that Suppose to help people NOT get the Omnicon Variant

What’s the point? They’ll never develop a vaccine to stop people getting Covid and even if they develop one to better protect against Omicron, by the time they do it’ll have been replaced by different variants.

Pfizer expects a record $100 billion in revenue this year, thanks to COVID vaccines and treatments. Pretty good incentive to stay one step behind.

[stui magpie]

Interesting article. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-09/ ... /100814004

Since the start of the pandemic, sceptics of the severity of COVID-19 have likened it to the flu.

Key points:
Analysis of recent Omicron BA.2 data from Denmark shows a fatality rate less than 0.05 per cent, which is below influenza
The JP Morgan economist who did the analysis concludes this might mark the end of the pandemic in countries with a similar vaccination profile
Australian epidemiologists warn that new variants are likely to mean some public health measures remain necessary
Two years in, with the milder Omicron variant now dominant, most of the developed world vaccinated, and much of it boosted, that assertion may bear some truth.

That is the view of JP Morgan economist David Mackie, who has been doing statistical analysis of the pandemic since soon after it began.

"Our analysis of the Danish data suggests that the properties of the now dominant BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron (high transmissibility but low virulence), high vaccination and booster rates and the use of anti-viral therapeutics have together pushed the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 to below the CFR of influenza," he said.

[Pies4shaw]

Looking forward to the ABC's forthcoming reportage of epidemiologists' views on business and finance, too.

Meanwhile, in Australia, half (2,186) of all (4,371) COVID deaths since the arrival of the pandemic here have been reported since Christmas 2021.

[stui magpie]

Well the Epidemiologists interviewed for the article didn't dispute his analysis.

[stui magpie]

For those concerned or curious about the 3rd dose requirements for workers, here's the details of who needs what.

https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/work ... quirements

[#26]

Meanwhile, in Australia, half (2,186) of all (4,371) COVID deaths since the arrival of the pandemic here have been reported since Christmas 2021.

Haven't heard the media reporting on that stat. Wonder why they're keeping quite about it?

[stui magpie]

They're not keeping quiet about it, the data is freely available, the question is why would they report a stat like that? To scare people?

[Pies4shaw]

Well the Epidemiologists interviewed for the article didn't dispute his analysis.

I wasn't actually commenting upon what the economist had done with his calculator. I was amused by the temerity of a guy with a calculator opining - as if he had any expertise to do so - about what the future course of COVID-19 might be.

It was the "The JP Morgan economist who did the analysis concludes this might mark the end of the pandemic in countries with a similar vaccination profile" that I particularly enjoyed. It might - but, then again, it might not - if I was assessing the strength of that likelihood, I wouldn't be asking an economist. It's almost as if he hasn't noticed that the world is full of epidemiologists who are qualified to interpret the data in that way and do so, with all sorts of emphases and differences of opinion (including, of course, many who embrace Mr Mackie's conclusion, albeit - I assume - because they consider it to be a reasonable view to adopt, having regard to their understanding and expertise).

We all know the case fatality rate of Omicron is relatively low. That - as I have said repeatedly - isn't the point. The point is that it doesn't kill many people it infects but is extremely infectious/transmissible, hence vast numbers of people get it and a small fraction of the vast numbers die. Small fraction by vast number = big number.

Be that as it may, the article you quoted from goes on to report that:

However, three of Australia's leading epidemiologists have varying degrees of doubt about the bank economist's analysis.

[Tony Blakely then makes a comment on David Mackie's calculation which is to the - wholly unsurprising - effect that David got his arithmetic correct.]

His main doubt rests with the idea that the pandemic might soon be over once and for all.

He says this conclusion rests on a "big assumption" that any further variants are "Omicron-like with decreasing virulence."

"There will be new variants," he warned.

....

However, Professor Blakely added that there was good reason to be optimistic that new variants were likely to result in less severe disease than we have seen in past waves.

"Because each time a new variant arises, we [as a population] have had more vaccinations and more natural infections, we make its effective virulence less," he explained.

"For example, had Omicron happened 18 months ago, it would have looked more virulent (but still not as bad as Delta).

"So it is reasonable to expect that most future variants will be milder due to this diversifying and building population immunity against developing serious illness, which will make it look like endemic influenza.

"However, this is not guaranteed. We may get unlucky, and a new variant comes along with large immune escape and high virulence, and we are back to needing strong PHSMs (public health and social measures) and lockdowns and masks and eventually better vaccines."

I've quoted from Blakely's views, as reported, because he plainly is more "optimistic" that we could be at the end of the pandemic than the other two are.

The way I read the views of all three, they don't diagree about the numbers (fundamentally, there is nothing to disagree about) - just what (if anything) flows from them.

[#26]

They're not keeping quiet about it, the data is freely available, the question is why would they report a stat like that? To scare people?

Because it's relevant? The data can be freely available and the media can choose not to focus on certain aspects of it.

[Pies4shaw]

^ You know the answer: On 27 September 2021, the NSW Government announced that "NSW has a clear path to follow out of the pandemic and lockdowns" https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/r ... or-all-nsw

Since then, the media has been following the NSW Government (piping like Crispian St Peters on a bad day)* not just out of lockdown but "out of the pandemic".

Since 27 September 2021, 3,128 of the total of the present total of 4,373 deaths in Australia have been reported. That is, since NSW gave us its "clear path to follow out of the pandemic", almost 3/4 of all COVID deaths in Australia have been reported.

There are, of course, even less flattering ways to present the data. So - as the optimists amongst us will recall, there were just 3 deaths from COVID reported in all of Australia between 22 November 2020 (when Victoria announced its "Last Step" restrictions) and 10 July 2021 (the Delta outbreak having emerged in June 2021). One might quite reasonably put the first 910 deaths to one side for present purposes - because they were plainly the result of a prior outbreak and a time when there were no vaccines and genuinely divided professional opinion about appropriate public health measures (eg, masks/no masks etc). If one did, one would have to confront the reality that Australia's public health strategies have resulted in 3,128 of the total of 3,463 "second wave" COVID deaths that have been reported in Australia since NSW announced its "clear path to follow out of the pandemic". If you prefer, 90% of all "second wave" COVID deaths have been reported since NSW showed us "how to get out of" the pandemic.

The media likes the "positive" message. They are peddling optimism on this one.

It's great politics. So great, in fact, that people who wanted a royal commission and Ministerial heads to roll over a bad mistake early in the pandemic that caused around 800 deaths in Victoria in a period of around 6 months don't want to talk about deaths at all anymore.

It's just a bit of a shame that something that is such great politics is not too effective as a public health strategy.

* For those too young to remember: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFdSOppmkNw

[eddiesmith]

That’s because in 2020, 1 state went it alone, deviated form the national plan and that one state completely $@&^# it up whilst the rest of the country enjoyed a relatively normal 2020 and 2021 whilst that one state spent most it in lockdown and with draconian restrictions.

Now the whole country has realised trying to keep it out is pointless as that one state was yet again out of control and people were over lockdowns. You like to blame NSW for giving up, but you’re in the minority who actually would have accepted endless lockdowns to keep chasing the impossible dream.

Now the whole country bar one different state have adopted a let it rip strategy, letting these magical vaccines save lives like they kept promising us they would when they forced them on us, yet again by that one state that $@&^# everything up.

Now the vaccines haven’t stopped it ripping through the country or the death tally running wild, Dictator Dans grand plan is lifetime boosters every three months or no work for you…Guess if the first 50 fail, the 51st might work…

[Pies4shaw]

The bus for Besidethepointsville leaves from the other stop, across the road.

I should, perhaps, observe that there is a vast range of potential public health measures between "lock everything down" and "let it rip". I suppose the problem for an intelligent politician (if there ever were one) is that the electorate is full of people who find it easier - as you plainly do - to turn everything into a stark choice between just 2 equally-stupid alternatives.

[Pies4shaw]

Overnight, a number of jurisdictions (eg, UK and Sweden) have announced that they are going to lift virtually all restrictions. This is a fascinating call.

Sweden will (kind of) get away with it - because they have a small population (population about 40% of Australia's, give or take, and they've had 4 times as many deaths as Australia, so the death rate there over the course of the pandemic has been 10 times as bad as it is here - given how hopeless their response has been and how little backlash they have had within Sweden, not enough people seem to care). They've decided to stop free testing because - to put it in stark terms - they actually can't be bothered with the cost and inconvenience of it anymore. I'm not so sure how the UK will fare.

The surprising thing is that this is happening as daily death rates are going up dramatically, both globally and in the instant countries. So, the total number of daily deaths reported worlwide in the "pre-Omicron" trough on 3 January 2022 was under 4,000. It's increased steadily since and yesterday was over 12,500 (and it is presently comfortably above the Delta "high"). The graph still looks to be on the sharp increase and deaths worldwide now are above any number they reached during Delta (so, the highest they've been since May 2021). The pictures in these countries generally seem to be the same, too - Sweden had almost no deaths from Delta but has had about 1,000 in the last month and the 7-day rolling average of daily deaths for the last month there has been between 2.5 and 4 times as high as the highest point reached during Delta. Similarly, during the post-Delta trough just before New Year, the UK has had about 10,000 new deaths and its 7-day rolling average of daily deaths for the last 3 weeks there has been double the highest point reached during Delta and is presently more than 15 times as high as its May 2021 low.