Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

David wrote:Round 12

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Geelong
4. Port Adelaide
5. Melbourne
6. GWS
7. Collingwood
8. Fremantle

9. Essendon
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Gold Coast
12. Brisbane
13. Adelaide
14. Hawthorn
15. St. Kilda
16. West Coast
17. Richmond
18. North Melbourne

Hawthorn deserve to be just outside the 8.

Is Essendon still too high?

David wrote:

K wrote:^ Melb. too high, Ess. too low?

Melbourne definitely lose marks for the West Coast and Brisbane losses, but otherwise wins against Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide and the Bulldogs have them up there as a contender for me.
...

Freo surely sealed the case.

The issue is that, at this point, all teams below Sydney have stumbled majorly in recent weeks, so it's hard to find teams worthy of being above them. Our formline hasn't been that impressive, objectively, yet I could have put us as high as 2nd if we hadn't gotten so many injuries and been able to defeat Fremantle and the Bulldogs in the last fortnight.

Port Adelaide in 4th seems even weirder to me, but who would you put above them?

Pies4shaw wrote:Is Essendon still too high?

Flip of the coin between them and the Bulldogs in 10th. Could potentially have them under Gold Coast, too.

Round 13

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Port Adelaide
5. Geelong
6. GWS
7. Melbourne
8. Fremantle

9. Essendon
10. Brisbane
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Gold Coast
13. Hawthorn
14. Adelaide
15. St. Kilda
16. West Coast
17. Richmond
18. North Melbourne

At risk of repeating myself, Hawthorn should be just outside the 8

dalyc wrote:At risk of repeating myself, Hawthorn should be just outside the 8

Yeah... If Hawthorn played Geebung at the G right now, dunno I'd back Geebung... But David has Geebung at 5 and Hawthorn 13.

Looking too much at current ladder position, which is not about form.

K wrote:

David wrote:

K wrote:^ Melb. too high, Ess. too low?

Melbourne definitely lose marks for the West Coast and Brisbane losses, but otherwise wins against Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide and the Bulldogs have them up there as a contender for me.
...

Freo surely sealed the case.

And no rebound against the "half their VFL side" Pies.

Round 14

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Geelong
5. GWS
6. Port Adelaide
7. Melbourne
8. Western Bulldogs

9. Fremantle
10. Brisbane
11. Essendon
12. Gold Coast
13. Hawthorn
14. Adelaide
15. St Kilda
16. West Coast
17. Richmond
18. North Melbourne

For those wondering about Hawthorn’s positioning, I do feel like things are tight from about 8th to 13th and that it wouldn’t take much for them to jump up a few places. But I don’t think you can make a strong argument that any of, say, Brisbane, Essendon or Gold Coast have performed worse.

(For what it’s worth, I never look at the actual ladder before I do this, just results.)

Media disagree with David. Hugely pro-Hawthorn now. Some claim 2nd behind Sydney!

It's amazing what low expectations can do for a team's perceived performance, lol.

Anyway, just goes to show: form ladder > media hype every time

^ No-one in reasonable possession of adequate faculties could rate Hawthorn anything much above 10th. The only team in the 8 that they've beaten is GWS (5th), by 6 points at York Park, in the middle of a Giant slump. They've lost to all of Sydney (1st), Essendon (3rd), Collingwood (4th), Geelong (6th) and Port (7th). They haven't played Carlton (2nd) or Fremantle (8th). They've beaten Footscray (9th), lost to the Suns (10th), lost to Melbourne (11th) and beaten the 13th, 15th, 17th and 18th teams (Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond and North). They're not quite completely hopeless - but they're a way off being likely against teams in the top half of the competition.

You're being a tad harsh IMO P4S...I think they're overs at $3.50 to make the 8.

I have them winning at least five of their remaining games, pinch one of the other 4 & 13 wins sneaks into 8th.

If I was doing a form ladder (my view of form is the last 4-6 weeks) I'd have them 6th.
They demolished Richmond last week, beat 5th placed GWS the week prior, Crows by 5 goals, Lions easily the week before & stole defeat from the jaws of victory against Port a month ago.

After the bye they have the worst team in the comp to warm for the remainder.
Mitchell has them playing a nice brand. My bets of the week.

5 units to make the 8 @ $3.90 with the 'boost'.
2 units Hawks top 8/ Pies premiers @ $26.

Carlton will be hard to shift from 2nd now, I fear. But we’re clearly top 4 now and should be able to stay there.

Oh no! Imagine if Carlton get to play us in a home Final?