fivethirtyeight.com presently projects that Biden will win the popular vote by about 8 million votes.watt price tully wrote:Yes Trump won big, he keeps on telling us.stui magpie wrote:Yet Trump still won at least 25 of the 50 states.Pies4shaw wrote:At the moment, if the likely vote holds, Biden will have 306 electoral college votes and Trump will have 232 (he should win 3 in Alaska and 15 in North Carolina).
Biden has the most votes ever in a presidential election and leads the popular vote count overall by over 3.86 million votes. To put that in context, that lead is more votes than Trump got in total (not the margin - his total vote) in the whole of Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, Alaska and Kansas. That is, Biden leads by more than the entire vote Trump received in 9 States that delivered him 36 electoral college votes.
To put that 3.86 million votes in context, Biden won California by over 4 million votes. So apart from California, Trump wins the popular vote across 49 states.
2020 US election results
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think positive
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David
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Great post, P4S.Pies4shaw wrote:I don't think the present system achieves that. If you have a majoritarian system, every vote counts. At the moment, no-one cares really about what happens in California or Idaho or Alaska - they're too "safe" to be targets. The winning of the election is about trying to persuade 75 people in Pennsylvania to vote 1 way, rather than the other - hence the temptation for Trump to lie so vigorously about fracking - even if 750,000 other people don't fall for it, he only needed the 30,000 who do. If everyone's vote could influence the outcome, the candidates would be worried about the whole of the country. Imagine if a vote in Alaska mattered as much as a vote in Georgia. Plainly, at present, that isn't the case. The present system gives the nasties too much influence. Start from the proposition that most people in rural America are probably not neo-Nazis, then ask why Trump was playing their tune so vocally. There, in my view, is the essence of the problem. The pollsters work out which elements of which State are going to determine things and then help the politicians amplify what is needed to woo those people. At the moment, everyone is voiceless unless they're in a "swing" State and if they're in a "swing" State they're still largely voiceless unless they can be swung.stui magpie wrote:I'm not a fan of the nationwide thing, it gives inner city **** too much control and renders the rural people basically voiceless.
True representative democracy should take into account the difference in people in different areas.
As an alternative, a proportional allocation to the electoral college might be preferable. Maybe Biden shouldn't get 55 electoral votes if he wins California by 3 votes. Maybe, on this year's voting, he should get about two-thirds and Trump should get a third (give or take - I'm speaking generally, here). Maybe if, within some reasonable degree of tolerance, the candidates get the "same" vote (say within some small percentage, or fraction of a percentage) they should get the same electoral votes. Does it really make sense that Biden gets all 20 if he holds on to Pennsylvania by a whisker? The present system seems to me to be a reasonable way to decide a game of footy but I'm not sure it's a way to give all the people a "voice".
If you look at how the 2016 election was decided, it was (more or less) by "flipping" a couple of States in the north-eastern part of the country. It looks like this one is going to be decided by flipping a few of those back and, as an add-on, flipping a Southern State and two more western ones. Ignore Georgia, Arizona and Nevada - if you look at what was "done" to win this election, essentially flipping Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania was all that was needed. So, the Democrats just had to do enough messaging to the States they held last time and push hard at winning back those three States.
There is always some "tipping point" or "points" that will get extra attention but at the moment it seems to me that both sides can take almost all of the country for granted in the Presidential election. True, which little bits of the country matter shifts around, gradually, as the demographics and economies alter (there was a time when the Republicans could take California for granted, eg) but it does have the feel of a system that can be manipulated by tiny voting blocks of ratbags on the margins.
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stui magpie
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^
It was actually a good post.
Yet again pointing out that elections are really decided by a small number of people.
So anyway, congrats to Biden. No chance on gods green earth that Don will go quietly or gracefully so there's some fun and games ahead but largely meaningless smoke and noise.
It will be interesting to see if Trump, as predicted by some, starts his own news network up. A more right wing version of Fox.
It was actually a good post.
Yet again pointing out that elections are really decided by a small number of people.
So anyway, congrats to Biden. No chance on gods green earth that Don will go quietly or gracefully so there's some fun and games ahead but largely meaningless smoke and noise.
It will be interesting to see if Trump, as predicted by some, starts his own news network up. A more right wing version of Fox.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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David
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He pretty much already has one (I think it’s called the One America News Network). It predates his presidency but has basically become the channel for Trump supporters who find Fox News insufficiently adulatory. Wouldn’t be surprised if he buys it and uses it as a platform over the next few years.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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watt price tully
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Congratulations to Biden and Harris. Didn’t find out till recently as I was riding my bike this morning.
Now that’s two fat rich bastards with extreme right wing politics who have lost badly: Trump and Palmer. I’m happier now.
The task Biden has is enormous but I’m encouraged by his inclusiveness, sense of hope and reaching out to others. It’s a time for healing. Then nail the Trump supporting racists that Trump actively encouraged.
Let the investigations into Trump’s financial affairs, tax avoidance and nepotism begin.
Now that’s two fat rich bastards with extreme right wing politics who have lost badly: Trump and Palmer. I’m happier now.
The task Biden has is enormous but I’m encouraged by his inclusiveness, sense of hope and reaching out to others. It’s a time for healing. Then nail the Trump supporting racists that Trump actively encouraged.
Let the investigations into Trump’s financial affairs, tax avoidance and nepotism begin.
“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman
And so - whilst I very much enjoyed John Legend's impromptu a capella version (thanks wpt), the one with the coolest piano chords ever recorded deserves a run, now, too, I think:Pies4shaw wrote:The good folk in Georgia have counted a few more votes today and Biden's lead is out to 9,160 there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QL3EZwSJAh0