Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

[stui magpie]

If Eastern Brown snakes suddenly sprout bat wings I ain't leaving the house without a machete and sawn off shotgun.

[Morrigu]

On the "wet market" origin theory:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/27/do ... han-virus/

But as it turns out, the market may not have been the cause of the outbreak at all. A new study shows that the early known victims had no contact with the market. And although the virus, at present, does seem to have originated in bats, it’s unclear how it made its way to humans. It’s quite likely no chowing down on the creatures of the night was involved.

Really? What is this new study? The link goes to some fluff opinion piece rabbiting about some years old video about bat soup that people got excited about before requiring a subscription to read any further and see any reference to a “ new study”

Think I’ll believe the evidence from the CDC, WHO and our ID Unit who outline the testing of origin and that is based on official research, the virus is thought to have emerged from illegally traded wildlife at the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan - note nothing suggests it was “ chowing down on creatures of the night” there are other methods of transmission apart from ingestion and that transmission from animals to humans has now progressed to human to human transmissions and it seems virus mutation - unless you can link to this new study that has credible scientific evidence that refutes this???

[David]

I think this is the one being referred to in the piece, Morrigu:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01 ... g-globally

[K]

^^

'“Now It seems clear that [the] seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,” he wrote. “But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now.”'

Yep...

That article also links to this:

https://sciencespeaksblog.org/2020/01/2 ... ypothesis/

[think positive]

I other words we have so many unsafe eating habits we have no damn idea which one caused it! Third world standards in a cough first world country! Or maybe they are just lying

[K]

... Or maybe they are just lying

It looks like the accusation is that the marketplace thing is the lie, i.e. they'd prefer to blame it on a marketplace than to consider human-to-human transmission back at that time.

[David]

I other words we have so many unsafe eating habits we have no $$%^%%$ idea which one caused it! Third world standards in a cough first world country! Or maybe they are just lying

I’m not sure anyone would call China a first-world country, even nowadays.

[K]

Well, Hong Kong only... but this is getting off topic.

[think positive]

I other words we have so many unsafe eating habits we have no $$%^%%$ idea which one caused it! Third world standards in a cough first world country! Or maybe they are just lying

I’m not sure anyone would call China a first-world country, even nowadays.

thats why i coughed

[Bucks5]

So it wasn't caused by beer? Who knew. LOL

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coro ... nds-2020-1

[K]

"Australians trapped at the heart of the coronavirus outbreak will have to pay $1000 to be evacuated from Wuhan to quarantine on Christmas Island."


Is it worth it? Just stay in lockdown in Wuhan??

[Morrigu]

I think this is the one being referred to in the piece, Morrigu:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01 ... g-globally

Thank you David

I read the original paper in The Lancet today - I can't link it as no-one has access to our Health Service Library.

Some interesting points:

This is a very limited study and acknowledged as such by the authors:

" First, for most of the 41 patients, the diagnosis was confirmed with lower respiratory tract specimens and no paired nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained to investigate the difference in the viral RNA detection rate between upper and lower respiratory tract specimens. Serological detection was not done to look for 2019-nCoV antibody rises in 18 patients with undetectable viral RNA. Second, with the limited number of cases, it is difficult to assess host risk factors for disease severity and mortality with multivariable adjusted methods.

This is a modest-sized case series of patients admitted to hospital; collection of standardised data for a larger cohort would help to further define the clinical presentation, natural history, and risk factors.

Further studies in outpatient, primary care, or community settings are needed to get a full picture of the spectrum of clinical severity. Finally, the potential exposure bias in our study might account for why no paediatric or adolescent patients were reported in this cohort"

The question of origin is interesting and not conclusively proved as yet but it would seem that the Huanan market may not be the only origin of the virus.

27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market - the first fatal case, who had continuous exposure to the market, was admitted to hospital because of a 7-day history of fever, cough, and dyspnoea. 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalised in the isolation ward

This case certainly looks to confirm human to human transmission. I am presuming that this is the family cluster described in the paper - it is not clear if any other family members of those exposed to the market contracted it as if they were not admitted to hospital they were not included in this study. These figures are also presuming that the 41 patients were all honest in their answers re exposure to the market - if you were involved in illegal trading of wildlife you may not be a realiable historian!

So it is quite posible that the 14 (34%) cases with no exposure to the Huanan market resulted from transmission from infected animals in other markets inside and/or outside Wuhan and/or human to human transmission from existing chains.

The only thing this paper conclusively proves is that China were not and have not been completely honest!

[stui magpie]

FFS, If you're going to quote stuff, provide a link. (K, not Morrigu) If you're just posting your own opinions, cool.

Australians in Wuhan can be evacuated. Cost is $1000 each and they go to Christmas Island for 2 weeks quarantine.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-30/ ... d/11913304

I can see why some people would choose not to take it, it's an option not an ultimatum.

Smart using Christmas Island, but if people don't like it, they're free to stay where they are and take their chances with the Chinese health system if they get sick.
I'd rather spend 2 weeks on Christmas Island if I was feeling fine than 2 weeks stuck in a fkn hospital, which we don't have access to anyway.

[K]

"New Zealand will go it alone on repatriating Kiwis in Wuhan..., chartering a flight to bring citizens home.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced the government will charter an Air New Zealand plane, with capacity for 300 passengers, to leave China - subject to Chinese approval.
...

Kiwis will have to pay "a nominal fee" for their place, with the New Zealand government to cover "most of the cost" of the flight."

(AAP)

[think positive]

Yup too easy!