Thinking ahead to 2024 draft...(and beyond)

[Charlie Oneeye]

Sometimes I think a good strategy is to just continually invest in a speculative KPP....you don’t want to end up with a list full of 6’6” spuds who can’t get a kick at VFL level either.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Yes, the downside is Talls take years to develop, and in the case of Begg(Mid season D) we cut him at 21, we could end up with a dozen developing talls.. I think the issue is the success rate/Luck.
Since Beggs recruitment in 2021, we have added and retained :
Steene,
Kreuger
McStay,
Smit
Eyre
Dean

We have trialled talls just about every pre-season. In essence, are late hail Mary potential picks, but with the benefit of a closer look.

Carlton won the wooden spoon in 2015, and used pick 1 for Weitering 10&12 for McKay/Curnow. They got 3 for 3, this is exceptional.

We got a 2 for 2 in Reid and Brown, but I'd argue only Reid was in Carlton's class.

Regardless of how studious or clever we are, we succumb to success/failure bias. Bloody thing comes down to luck and getting that 250 game player which settles that spot on the list for 12 years.

[stui magpie]

^
We also got Dawes in the 06 draft, so even though he didn't go on to be a 200 gamer, he was a vital player in the 2010 flag, so I'd call that 3 from 3.

[5:11pm]

@Pies2016 Well considered and absolutely realistic

With a few smart decisions we are in genuine play.

Wouldn’t trade Reef though, unless it’s an offer too good to refuse.
The kid has so much untapped potential and could be the HB, HF, or Wingman of our dreams.

[SLORT]

Current AFL Draft Power Rankings: August 2024.
https://central.rookieme.com/afl/power- ... july-2024/

Seems #14>#30 would be the bracket we may have a crack at getting among.

Already heard a bit from people saying we're into the Whitlocks. Anyone else?

[The Black and White Lion]

Sounds like Armstrong and Travaglia will be top 10 picks but either would be a great get as a KPF or running defender.

Joe Berry would be a great small fwd pick to replace Elliot in future and Richards if he leaves.

Lindsay looks good but just did his PCL so you can write off 2025.

Hynes has a bigger body and could play a DeGoey or a Maynard type role.

Would still love to get a Whitlock or two but all is not lost with Sims and Faull just off the page

[lazzadesilva]

Would still love to get a Whitlock or two but all is not lost with Sims and Faull just off the page

Just wondering if Faull is any relation to Greg Faull who played just one game for Collingwood in 1989! If he is and we get him, hope he plays more games than his namesake

[LaurieHolden]

[quote=lazzadesilva post_id=2210393
Just wondering if Faull is any relation to Greg Faull who played just one game for Collingwood in 1989! If he is and we get him, hope he plays more games than his namesake

I love it @lazzadesilva that you can pluck from relative obscurity a 1 game player from our days or yore.
How did you manage to recall him? He must have debuted at VP when you and the lads were standing in the terraces, or was it the Rush stand?

AFL Tables
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players ... Faull.html

Collingwood Forever
https://forever.collingwoodfc.com.au/pl ... index.html

[Pies2016]

@SLORT Cheers. When clubs go looking for “ Moneyball “ players, the whole premise is about perceived improvement and growth in these guys, as opposed to what we all just see in the now. Sometimes the club gets it right, sometimes they don’t but the risk, reward of “ Moneyball “ trades will always have appeal.
As soon as Peatling had his breakout game against the Dees, he became the worst kept secret in footy anyway. He only really got his opportunity on the back of the Kelly and Coniglio injuries, so these depth players can still be serious players but they need those injuries before they even get a chance to shine.

Alex Davies is another one in that category, in that how do you get to show your true ability when Rowell, Anderson, Miller and now Flanders are all automatic selections in the Suns core mix of midfielders. The difference for Davies is that the Suns didn’t cop an injury all season.
Obviously being linked to a player is a far cry from actually signing these guys on. I try not to get overly carried away by specific players who are mentioned at this EARLY stage but what it does show, is where our focus is directed.

[BazBoy]

Will the resigning of four senior players affect our chance of having enough left in salary cap
to pick up a top recruit ??

[Pies2016]

The club would be irresponsible if it doesn’t go to the draft with some sort of improved hand on what we already have. You simply can’t have the oldest list in the competition and not attack the upcoming draft without some strategy involving an addition of youth.
Ideally, I would like to see us with a pick in the high teens ( which would drift out on the night ) used on either the next best midfielder OR if the club is confident of getting it right, the next best KPP in the mix.
There’s also no point making the decision to take another tilt at the flag with the current list unless we add a couple players who fill the gaps our list is deemed to have. I’m sure we will add a recycled player or two but don’t think we are going to totally dismiss this draft and invest all our draft capital on the now.
There’s a happy balance to be obtained in all this and that’s what they will be working very hard to achieve come draft night. The good news is, the likely departures of Noble, Richards, potentially others ( ?? ) and even our F1, will all contribute to making this balance decidedly more possible.

[piffdog]

^ I don’t think any player we get in the upcoming draft will have any in role in our 2025 campaign. Whatever we do in the draft is therefore (IMO) about the future.

We need to keep an eye on the here and now, but also try to keep chipping away at the future - with a slight preference for the former given the window is open.

I actually think getting someone like Schultz has done both (but we’re all pretty impatient).

[LaurieHolden]

Ideally we try to trade up into late 1st round to get one of the Whitlocks
https://central.rookieme.com/afl/power- ... gust-2024/

I'm with you Jen, these two certainly fit the project player bookend requirements ¬

• Jack Whitlock Murray Bushrangers | Key Forward height:200cm
  Noah Mraz Dandenong Stingrays | Key Defender height:198cm

https://central.rookieme.com/afl/power- ... ust-2024/

All going well we can still find a way to attract a 75-125 game player or two to bolster our 2025 season requirements.
Ideally that should keep everyone happy.

[BazBoy]

It’s going to be a critical job this coming draft
There be young for future and the ones to start straight away in the 25 -27 age & not the 30,ish
Leppitsch one would hope is skilled enough in this facet of off field strategy

[Pies2016]

The “ simplest “ way to satisfy both the now and the future of our list needs, is to push the Suns for a trade that involves Noble and our future first rounder in return for their 2024 # 13 ( likely 16 / 17 on the night ) and their # 20 pick ( which would also drift out to 25 (?) on the night )
The Suns have so many 2024 picks available ( plus the likely trade of Lukosuis), they would likely be more interested in banking a decent 2025 pick, rather than any of our 2024 picks.
In return, we would gain a decent first round pick to use, as well as being in a position to on-trade their # 20 for a player who would improve our current best 23. Although this would involve losing our 2025 first pick, this would be offset by the selection of McGuane as an F /S prospect in the 2025 first round anyway.

The Suns will have a lot going on, including the Rioli trade and that will likely involve their #6 and then there’s also the trading out of Lukosuis. You want to be negotiating the Noble trade now, just so you can both announce that deal early in trade week and then both clubs can move on and create new opportunities with the assets they both traded in.
Also, the Suns have such a young list, I don’t think they would be to concerned about trading out their early picks ( compared to other clubs ) and they would still pick up Lombard as an NGA in the teens with a combination of their later picks anyway.
I see the above as a win, win for both clubs but it takes two to tango, so who knows how it will play out. In a year where not many clubs will want to trade out their first rounders in such a good draft, you want to be in constant dialogue with the Suns while both clubs continue to have something they both want. I reckon they loom as our best chance to get into the meat of this draft… assuming that’s what we want to do also.

[Cam]

Will the resigning of four senior players affect our chance of having enough left in salary cap
to pick up a top recruit ??

They might well all be on minimum chips, and one year deals gives us scope to backload others a bit anyway.