Current Morrison Federal Government

[Wokko]

Look out 51-49 Labor.

https://www.afr.com/news/politics/finan ... l_facebook

Shorten to join Beazley and Hewson in infamy or just a poll surge because of Labor's stupidity engaging on border security? I'd still be tipping a Shorten win but they're doing all they can to mess it up.

[stui magpie]

I'm beyond caring who wins, I just want a government that works with an agenda that looks past getting re-elected.

Just fkn do something

[Culprit]

Look out 51-49 Labor.

https://www.afr.com/news/politics/finan ... l_facebook

Shorten to join Beazley and Hewson in infamy or just a poll surge because of Labor's stupidity engaging on border security? I'd still be tipping a Shorten win but they're doing all they can to mess it up.

Yep a poll of 1200 people spells doom for the ALP.

[regan is true fullback]

look out 51-49 Labor.

https://www.afr.com/news/politics/finan ... l_facebook

Shorten to join Beazley and Hewson in infamy or just a poll surge because of Labor's stupidity engaging on border security? I'd still be tipping a Shorten win but they're doing all they can to mess it up

Liberal party supporters celebrate the big electoral victory in May:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wnzVMUbpV4

[Culprit]

These polls are relevant to the questions and how they are worded. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 50ycv.html

[Culprit]

Nothing to see here. https://www.news.com.au/finance/paladin ... e3f047d4fc

[watt price tully]

I said a long time ago this election was not a lay down misere (for all you old 500 players).

Is there a danger that Morrison et all have (or will) over-egged this?

[David]

I only ever take advice on polls from Kevin Bonham. Long story short: the apparent move towards the government in this poll could be significant, but Fairfax/Ipsos is notoriously variable, and we'll probably need another Newspoll to confirm that this is more than an outlier result.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/02 ... r-for.html

The 51-49 to Labor Ipsos released tonight deserves some immediate comment. The main things to know about Ipsos are (i) that the pollster is volatile compared to the other significant pollsters, (ii) that the pollster's primary votes have a skew towards the Greens and, to a lesser degree, generic Others. Ipsos' 2PPs don't skew to one side or the other, but they are bouncy.

Also, the Coalition was a bit lucky to get 49% off this set of primaries (Coalition 38 Labor 33 Green 13) - this would normally come out to 48.4 by last-election preferences, and I aggregated it at 48.6. As a result my aggregate has so far dropped seven tenths of a point to 53.0 by last-election preferences, or 52.4 with the One Nation adjustment. However, it's possible that the events of the last week have made a big difference and my aggregate is being conservative. Or it's possible that Ipsos is being volatile again. When there is a single poll that differs from the rest and there is an obvious event that may have caused it, an aggregate cannot say whether the poll is right or not - and in the case of Ipsos it's much more difficult to infer anything than it would be if we saw a three-point jump in Newspoll.

Looking at the record of Ipsos so far this term, there have been seven cases prior to this one of it being a point or more away from my aggregate even after including it. In two of these Ipsos ran ahead of changes in other polls generally, while in four of these the movement implied by Ipsos never showed up in other polling, suggesting that Ipsos was simply being bouncy. The cases where Ipsos was predictive include two of the three cases it stuck out on the Coalition's side (narrowings in April and September 2018) but no case where it stuck out on Labor's side. Make of that what you will. The seventh case was inconclusive: an apparent massive outlier in Labor's favour just before Prime Minister Turnbull was removed. (I suspect it was partly right and partly overreacting in that case.)

The Ipsos result was also somewhat contradicted by a Queensland-only federal Galaxy which had very strong numbers for Labor (52-48, a 6.1% improvement on the 2016 election, though Labor does have a history of underperforming in Queensland compared to lead-up polling.)

[stui magpie]

I said a long time ago this election was not a lay down misere (for all you old 500 players).

Is there a danger that Morrison et all have (or will) over-egged this?

I used to play 500 with my parents back in the day and used to call Misere a bit. My dad really hated it, he thought it was cheating and cracked the sads, particularly cos he never beat me when I called it, open or otherwise.

[Culprit]

The best fiscal managers in the land and the Minister of finance doesn't check his bank statements. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 50yrq.html

[Skids]

Shorten is pathetic.. the longer he gets to show it, the firmer a Lib win gets.

I think I might have a little nibble on the coalition @ $3.50

[David]

^ I'm no fan of Shorten, but he's a statesman in comparison with try-hard Morrison. If the Libs get another term with him in charge, then Australians are officially hopeless and we can well and truly give up on any tolerable future for the country.

[regan is true fullback]

[Pies4shaw]

^ I'm no fan of Shorten, but he's a statesman in comparison with try-hard Morrison. If the Libs get another term with him in charge, then Australians are officially hopeless and we can well and truly give up on any tolerable future for the country.

I appreciate, of course, that telling people on a footy fan site not to "pick a side" is a hopelessly lost cause before I say it. Nevertheless, I think it is a good idea to be alive to the possibility that the "choices" might both be a form of parasitic infection. There isn't much of a choice presented between them on anything that really matters. The art of politics in a two-party liberal democracy is to make it look like there are important divisions between the parties, so that voters want to "take a stand". Nothing much will change, though, whichever party wins. This doesn't mean that one should give up trying to change things - it just means that one should give up expecting that the bunches of people who collectively got us to this point will suddenly develop a significant interest in getting us to a different point.

For avoidance of doubt, one can happily adopt that position and still hate Morrison.

[Culprit]