Finals qualification

[Skids]

^

We won't lose any of those 3 games. Then, after the bye, we continue our rise into the Top 2.

[RudeBoy]

Missing JDG, Cox, WHE, Checkers, Elliott, Mitchell and possibly still Howe, tells me that we are in great danger of losing to the Dogs. I'm still tipping us to win, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us drop this one. I'll be happy if we can win 2 out of next 3 games, but thrilled if we manage to win all 3.

[Big T]

With our draw and injuries, just making the finals will a massive effort and put the fear of god into the other contenders

[LaurieHolden]

After 11 rounds, according to the latest from Wheelo Ratings simulations, we're a 38.80% chance for the Top4 and 74.70% for the Top8.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

[What'sinaname]

With our draw and injuries, just making the finals will a massive effort and put the fear of god into the other contenders

It's a tough run. Resigned to losing to Melbourne and the Dogs game is 50:50 given their injuries.

But it that string of four games:
GC at Metricon
Essenden G
Geelong G
Hawthorn G

will make or break the season. Hopefully by June 29, we have players back from injury.

[What'sinaname]

The injury list suggests we'll lose to WB and Melbourne and the North game isn't a certainty either.

We could be 12th / 13th this time next month

[Pies4shaw]

Collingwood remains the only undefeated team in the AFL over the last 8 rounds.

It's possible the Pies will lose to a team that has managed 5 wins in 11 rounds (against the 10th, 15th, 16th and 17th sides and GWS in the middle of a form slump that has seen them lose 3 of the last 4 and win the 4th by 4 points against Geelong - a team in a slightly worse form slump that has seen them lose 4 in a row), not least because the game is being played at their postage-stamp-sized arena.

But I wouldn't be expecting a loss.

As for the Pauperoos, it is true - in a literal sense - that beating them is no certainty - but they have won just 1 of their last 32 matches (the dead rubber win in the final round of 2023 that served only to lose them Harley Reid). Their average losing margin this year is 52 points and they haven't ended any game this year within 4 goals of their opponent. If Collingwood lost to that rabble it would be more than unexpected.

[K]

......provided we don't draw again this year!

Or another team around the same ladder position draws.

There'll prolly be another draw this year... but prolly not between teams directly competing with us for ladder position.
...

Yep, only took a few weeks! Adelaide & Brissy's "elimination final" ended with... err... both eliminated??

Our % is clearly greater than the other 3 drawers, and way less than the % of all of Syd, Geebung, Melb, GWS. Only Port and Carlton, both 2 points ahead, have similar %. So the draw kinda works for us, i.e. closer to a win than a loss.

But still plenty of games left for another draw...

Well, well, well...

When was the last time we had two draws in a season?

[BazBoy]

[Jezza]

6 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (28 points)

Based on Fly's metric we're going to need to win 7 of our last 11 to qualify for finals. It's likely 14 wins is an overstatement and it might require only 12 or 13 wins instead to qualify.

We're just over the halfway mark of the season now:

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)

R13 - Melbourne (H)
R14 - North Melbourne (A)
R16 - Gold Coast (A)
R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[What'sinaname]

That's a nasty run

Got to play the top 4 teams 5 times.
Gold Coast away
A resurgent Hawthorn team

All mighty tough games

Geelong
North, Richmond and Lions (G)

These are ones we should win

[David]

[warburton lad]

Two observations:

1) we most probably will make the eight (anywhere between 5th and 8th).
2) no matter where we finish in the eight, no side will want to play us if we have anywhere near a full list. especially if McStay impacts upon return.

I believe that we have the talent to emulate what Western Bulldogs did in 2016.

Whilst a Top Four finish would be great, it is not essential for us to be Premiers.

Floreat Pica.

[Jezza]

7 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (32 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)

R14 - North Melbourne (A)
R16 - Gold Coast (A)
R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[RudeBoy]

Two observations:

1. We will make the top 4.

2. We will play the Swans in the Grand Final.