Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

IT's likely that Dayne Beams who turns 25 next month shall be an enormous gain for the Lions. Having watched the Pies since 1977 I class him in the best 5 on ballers we have had since that time. However it's likely that the following shall occur:

* Dayne Beams 2015-2018 shall be his prime years (25-28 years of age) and I have no doubt his influence on the Lions shall be huge. however, they with a poor goal to goal line are 5 years away from contending upon which time his value and possible availability shall be diminished.

One knee construction and the risk return factor for the Lions would be a disaster and immediately render the deal to Brisbane a BUST.

For the Pies we have secured:

* Jordan De Goey: at pick 5 with a career range of 12 years plus being more than realistic. If he plays anywhere near his pick 5 selection, we shall suddenly be more than "break even" on the Beams deal

* Levi Greenwood: well we know what we shall get here. Most likely a 6 season 125 games of inside mid clearance player who'll offset the loss of Luke Ball and soon become Dane swan and Scott Pendlebury's best allie!!!

* Jack Crisp: If he can rebut the "steak knives tag" and be Paul Medhurst like in effectiveness and output, then we have trumped the Lions massively and holding for the 3rd part of the trade deal would in hindsight been a master stroke.

I use the Schwass vs S Grant deal when trying to convert the above beams deal into some sort of numeracy comparison.

Wayne Schwass gave Sydney 5 excellent seasons, a B & F and from memory an All Australian versus S Grant whom gave the Roos a Norm Smith medal, B & F and 10 years great service.

And that is the point. How many season or service can we expect from the Pies inclusions?

De Goey: 10-12 seasons

Greenwood: 5-7 seasons

Crisp: may range from 2-10 seasons based on his performances

When compared to Beams who'll do well to exceed 6-7 seasons with the Lions, we have a situation where we can in "man hours so to speak" secure 22-25 years of collective service form our inclusions.

Hopefully this can be at an elite level!!

ps: yes I have too much time on my hands

I don't think Beams has had a knee reconstruction.

"if he had one at Brisbane"...

Let's give it at least a few years before we can have an idea on who may win this trade.

In the immediate future it will look like Brisbane will win it especially if Beams performs instantly well but as time goes on don't be surprised to see us being the winners out of this especially if Crisp and De Goey produce the goods.

Buckley. Swan. Pendlebury, Daicos Williams (Paul or Mark), Francis were all better than Beams . I could nearly throw Burns in that. Beams was good but he had help. Throw in Tony Shaw and a few others and it is unlikely Beams would have been top 10. We will win on this deal.

ronrat wrote:Buckley. Swan. Pendlebury, Daicos Williams (Paul or Mark), Francis were all better than Beams . I could nearly throw Burns in that. Beams was good but he had help. Throw in Tony Shaw and a few others and it is unlikely Beams would have been top 10. We will win on this deal.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Add (since '77) Russell, McGuane, R Shaw, Wearmouth and W Richardson and he's got some competition. He may well have surpassed a few of those if he'd stayed a Pie but he's only just entering his prime.

That aside, agree with Jezza. Way too early to tell, we'd have a better idea at the end of 2015 even when we've had the opportunity to see Beams at Brissy, and see what Greenwood, Crisp and DeGoey bring to the Pies.

He was better than Choco and Paul Wiliams whose real maturity as a player happened at Sydney Swans. Daics played 50% of his career in the forward line, Wayne Richardson retired in 1977 and was past his prime. Beams was uperior to Wearmouth, Ray Shaw retired at 27 a gun but a tad unfulfilled and went to Preston in VFA.
Beams has more ticks than Scott Russell, Tony Francis peaked for 2-3 seasons only and would agree that:

Swan, Buckley, Pendlebury, McGuane and Brown edge Beams so maybe top 6 would be more plausible.

Beams does not even bear comparison with Mark Williams. Beams is yet to turn up to play in a Grand Final. Williams all but won one on his own. I don't get all this hype about Beams. He wouldn't have been in the top 5 in the present team, let alone in the past 37 years. Cloke, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Swan and Reid, eg, would all be selected ahead of him. He's a slow, outside mid. Frankly, he was part of our problem and replacing him with someone with a bit of pace will improve the team, even if the stats look less impressive.

Wowee Pies4Shaw how the memory fades. I think Choco had 17 possessions 2 goals and gave away 6 free kicks in his ONLY Grand final appearance. He battled in 1986 as a 27 year old and was bottom lined by Lethal to sign up or leave by a certain date. Yes his 1981-85 was excellent but still think Beams is a better player.

Especially considering Dayne has achieved his results between 19-24 vs Choco did so between 22-28 after 80-100 Port Adelaide games.

Wowee Pies4Shaw how the memory fades. I think Choco had 17 possessions 2 goals and gave away 6 free kicks in his ONLY Grand final appearance. He battled in 1986 as a 27 year old and was bottom lined by Lethal to sign up or leave by a certain date. Yes his 1981-85 was excellent but still think Beams is a better player.

Especially considering Dayne has achieved his results between 19-24 vs Choco did so between 22-28 after 80-100 Port Adelaide games.

You need to watch that game again. His third quarter was the single greatest quarter played by any Collingwood player in a GF in my lifetime. The only 17 possession stat for Williams that comes to my mind is his 17 disposal third quarter against theBlooz at Princes Park earlier that season.

Agree we need to wait a few years before we can make a measured judgement on this trade but i have tried to break it down by the numbers to come up with a possible outcome / winner on this deal.
The AVERAGE career of pick # 5 in national draft is 110 games. Pies record would suggest they wont get it wrong ( DeGoey is generally described as consistant and workman like rather than a burst, impact player )
Greenwood " only " has to be near his 2014 form while coming into his prime ( like beams ) and he probably has around 120 reasonable games in him easily.
I look at it as deGoey and Greenwood to be playing a fair bit of footy together in the same team for a few years to come.
I havent even added Crisp into the equation because who knows.

So in summary, given that both Beams, Greenwood and DeGoey are all likely to be playing at the same time over the next few years, my equation for the trade is simple. DeGoey + Greenwood vs Beams.
I am very happy with the trade. I dont see Beams offering more output on the field than Greenwood and DeGoey combined over the next 5 / 6 years.
Bring it on and thats not even factoring Crisp in.

De Goey looks really Promising