This is a new thread in relation to the actual election votes. I will unlock it on the day. In the meantime, I've included fivethirtyeight's report about what might get counted meaningfully on the (US) night of the polls - and what you might reasonably take from those results, hour by hour.
Here's fivethirtyeight's conclusion:
Of course, 270 electoral votes are required to remain or become President, so, in substance, the prediction is, in substance, that - if the polls are in the ballpark - we won't know the outcome on the Tuesday night (Wednesday morning, AEDT).In total, if we stick to just the states where we are expected to get quick projections and where we are confident we know what those projections will be, Biden would have 192 electoral votes at this point and Trump would have 119. So it’s very possible that we will go to bed not knowing who has won the presidential election. Of course, it’s also possible that, if either Biden or Trump does better than we expect them to, they will win enough states on election night to be formally declared the winner.
Even if not, though, states like Florida where we think we’ll get results quickly but where both candidates have a shot will be strong indicators of who is on track to win. So even if we don’t have a winner on election night, that doesn’t mean we won’t have a pretty good idea.
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