Are we on the brink of another recession?

[David]

There seem to be some worrying signs ahead economically:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/con ... 5bof1.html

The Albanese government's budget is due in two weeks, and the treasurer appears to be preparing us for bad news on the home front too:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 5borc.html

Anyone have any clue what we can expect in the next twelve months or so? Also, while it's easy to understand the political reasons Albanese is clinging on to his promise to move ahead with Stage 3 tax cuts, it's kind of extraordinary to think that a Labor government might be cutting taxes for the wealthy while delivering austerity politics in other areas (with potentially even more pain to come down the track). Hopefully things aren't as bad as feared, and some common sense can win out.

<Discussion of Stage 3 tax cuts moved here: https://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=91242. Thanks, BBMods.>

[Skids]

Legalise and tax cannabis, that would pull in half a billion a year for the tax office and probably save that on police resources wasted chasing and incarcerating (around 3000 are in gaol for minor weed offences) pot smokers.

The recession, yes, there will be one in 2023. The US dollar is cranking out of control, business earnings are diving, rising energy costs... the whole inflation package, driven by the massive covid related spending and strangling lockdowns has pushed us to the brink. Buckle up buttercup.

[pietillidie]

Yes, it's likely coming. It's a question now of severity. The underlying long-term cause is productivity decline, which precedes the GFC, was then made far worse by policies to cope with the GFC, then made worse again by Covid and an appalling lack of preparation for a global pandemic (and things like zero stress testing of supply chains as part of national security), all made worse again by a two-decade stifling of energy market and technology innovation, enabling Putin and OPEC to punish the world.

Given all that, and not forgetting Iraq and everything that flowed on from that, and then the costly instability and distraction of Brexit and Trump, and China's sabre-rattling and dire need for reform, and then our broken relationship with China at a crucial time when cooperation was needed, we're probably doing better than expected.

But the underlying problem which makes everything worse and stifles innovation and allows tyrants to take over politics has been productivity decline, and that started in the 00s. (R&D expenditure in some countries like the UK has also been dire). Supply was far more vulnerable to something like a pandemic because of that ailing productivity. Too many companies are using backward technology and running backward management thinking, so there was no hope in hell for us to adapt quickly to a supply shock.

It's hard not to think there needs to be culling of unproductive, backward companies and managers, frankly, to enable a new generation to come through.

[pietillidie]

For the record, UK CFO sentiment, though Tory chaos won't be helping:

On average, CFOs attach a 78% probability to the UK falling into recession in the next 12 months.

https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/p ... ecade.html

[think positive]

Yes, it's likely coming. It's a question now of severity. The underlying long-term cause is productivity decline, which precedes the GFC, was then made far worse by policies to cope with the GFC, then made worse again by Covid and an appalling lack of preparation for a global pandemic (and things like zero stress testing of supply chains as part of national security), all made worse again by a two-decade stifling of energy market and technology innovation, enabling Putin and OPEC to punish the world.

Given all that, and not forgetting Iraq and everything that flowed on from that, and then the costly instability and distraction of Brexit and Trump, and China's sabre-rattling and dire need for reform, and then our broken relationship with China at a crucial time when cooperation was needed, we're probably doing better than expected.

But the underlying problem which makes everything worse and stifles innovation and allows tyrants to take over politics has been productivity decline, and that started in the 00s. (R&D expenditure in some countries like the UK has also been dire). Supply was far more vulnerable to something like a pandemic because of that ailing productivity. Too many companies are using backward technology and running backward management thinking, so there was no hope in hell for us to adapt quickly to a supply shock.

It's hard not to think there needs to be culling of unproductive, backward companies and managers, frankly, to enable a new generation to come through.

And allowing too many industries to sell out and go overseas.

Banks being allowed to oversell to eager home buyers, too silly to realise the property they are buying Will be beyond their means with any small bump in interest rates. Gees I’m old enough to remember interst rates in the high teens.

Social media and crap like the kartrashians is just encouraging people to live beyond their means for appearances. There needs to be a mandatory subject called economics, not like the elective, one that teaches the difference between want and need, the complete scam that credit cards are designed to be and how to navigate it to your best interests, basic budgeting, and forecasting, and exactly what the effects of fraudulent insurance claims etc are in dollar figures.

Watching the news just now, a guy with a riverside house, flood damage, wants an Australian wide flood levy to fill in his insurance shortfall for people living in flood zones. Say what! For infrastructure maybe, but not for your view! That’s a calculated risk he took.

Not the guy on the wrong side ofthe levy I might add. Iget why they are all pissed but not because of this levy, because back in the 90’sthe council got funding for one that would protect them all but didn’t build it. So where did the money go? That I’d be pissed about

I get why people are pissed off about the Flemington racecourse wall.

[stui magpie]

^

Flood insurance can be ridiculously expensive, people should be able to have faith that local and state governments take appropriate preventative action, like Levee banks.

The Levee at Toc goes for 14km and has been raised at least twice since the river almost broke over it in 74 so I don't have flood insurance.

I do agree on people living beyond their means, everyone needs to have the latest toys, the biggest TV's every streaming service known to man and rent places they can barely afford to pay for instead of settling in a dump for a while and trying to save a deposit.

[think positive]

Yes to all

As with everything people making false claims have contributed heavily to insurance costs, along with the Industry’s disgusting greed,

[What'sinaname]

^

Flood insurance can be ridiculously expensive, people should be able to have faith that local and state governments take appropriate preventative action, like Levee banks.

The Levee at Toc goes for 14km and has been raised at least twice since the river almost broke over it in 74 so I don't have flood insurance.

I do agree on people living beyond their means, everyone needs to have the latest toys, the biggest TV's every streaming service known to man and rent places they can barely afford to pay for instead of settling in a dump for a while and trying to save a deposit.

Council greed leads them to rezone flood prone land for stupid people to purchase.

I have little sympathy for people who don't have insurance. Paying a few hundred dollars to insure several hundred thousand worth of assets is a no brainer.

[stui magpie]

A few hundred dollars is one thing, what about $10-15k pa for flood insurance which is more realistic?

[Dave The Man]

Feel Sorry people who have a Mortgage or Renting there House's

[think positive]

^

Flood insurance can be ridiculously expensive, people should be able to have faith that local and state governments take appropriate preventative action, like Levee banks.

The Levee at Toc goes for 14km and has been raised at least twice since the river almost broke over it in 74 so I don't have flood insurance.

I do agree on people living beyond their means, everyone needs to have the latest toys, the biggest TV's every streaming service known to man and rent places they can barely afford to pay for instead of settling in a dump for a while and trying to save a deposit.

Council greed leads them to rezone flood prone land for stupid people to purchase.

I have little sympathy for people who don't have insurance. Paying a few hundred dollars to insure several hundred thousand worth of assets is a no brainer.

truth to both. although i get stuis point re flood insurance, but hey, if you live on the bank of a river you probably need to factor it in as a necessary expense. same reasoning i have with cars, if you cant afford to insure your car in case you smash someone elses, dont have a car.

the first point, my view in indented head was destroyed by the geefricken long council doing a deal with arseholefrank costa, may he rot. it was swampy grasslands, gorgeous in summer, a real playground for everyone, and i could see the bay from upstairs. they dug a huge hole, then filled it in, everyhouse in the street was filthy from the mud, they would clean their side of the road, but not ours til a few of us hounded the council. last weekend i watched out the window during a huge downfall, they may have built it up and created a drainage dam, but omg i could not believe the way the water was pooling, and washing new gardens down the drain! **** em!


that anglers tavern always gets sympathy but gees, have a brain! move it! shut it down! any insurance company would be mad to touch it, i reckon i can remember it being flooded at least 10 times!



Dave the interest rate had to rise, and its nothing compared to 20 years ago! the low rate and shonky sellers convinced people to go in too deep, with too much of their wage wrapped up in repayments. young things with big loans on new cars, just dumb. the rental market has shot itself. the costs and rules have turned away many investors, not the shonky ones of course, the ones whos properties were well managed and cared for. the ones with dodgey wiring will just have dodgey certifications!


above all, a lot of people just doesnt seem to understand living within their means.

My daughter has a good income, she still drives the car we got her, its nothing flash, needs the oil topped up every second week, her house she bought herself with no financial help from us is nothing special, basic simmonds home, with a lot of second hand furniture! she locked her loan for 4 years, so 2.5 to go, and she pays extra payments. she knows how to budget. shes living for the future, for when they decide to settle down and have the home they want. you know, like your parents and us oldies did!


just think if they stop the welfare cheats, then people who really need rental assistance, and other things will actually have less trouble getting them! but no, lets just raise taxes and chuck in more money to be rorted!

[pietillidie]

As if to underscore the point that the ship is sinking because there is no one to elect except clueless whack jobs or malignant narcissists, the most talentless yet smug dimwit to ever grace a leadership position, Liz Truss, has fallen on her sword already. At least Trump has the gift of entertainment to go along with his malignant narcissism.

What an utterly clueless being. She made Boris Johnson look like a searing intellect.

Oxbridge really is the gift that keeps on giving losers over here (well, and there - see Tony Abbott). And people wonder why Western economies are in decline. Is it that hard to comprehend that people in leadership positions need to be suitably qualified to, um, lead?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63332037

[stui magpie]

I hadn't been following that at all, but reading some stuff about her resignation, she does seem like a clueless imbecile who actually makes Boris look intelligent

[pietillidie]

^Honestly, it's like an episode of Benny Hill. Fortunately, business Tories are turning on them with ferocity, so the 'Britannia unchained' Brexit whackos are being herded into a corner, hopefully to be bulldozed into the sea.

[pietillidie]

Bit of an update on the Aussie economy in the light of energy demand that will interest:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newslett ... re-soaring