Taking the (optimistic) long-term view on our team

[Cam]

[Skids]

They way our defence is leaking goals is a worrying trend.
There's a lot to be concerned about with where this side is going. I'm struggling to share the optimism of the OP.

[What'sinaname]

[dalyc]

[gurugeoff]

Murley 18yr 10mth 178cm 70kg
Harrison 18yr 7mth 178cm 70kg
Draper 19yr 3mth 186cm 75kg
Daicos N 19yr 4mth 182cm 73kg
Ginnivan 19yr 5mth 184cm 78kg
McInnes 19yr 5mth 193cm 85kg
Begg 19yr 7mth 197cm 87kg
Poulter 19yr 7mth 193cm 80kg
Henry 19yr 9mth 189cm 80kg
McMahon 20yr 197cm 88kg
Dean 20yr 10mth 195cm 86kg
Chugg 20yr 2mth 180cm 80kg
Macrae 20yr 2mth 187cm 81kg
Ruscoe 20yr 6mth 193cm 92kg
McCreery 21yr 186cm 83kg
Bianco 21yr 3mth 188cm 73kg
Kelly 21yr 8mth 194cm 93kg
Kreuger 22yr 10mth 196cm 88kg
Quaynor 22yr 3mth 180cm 84kg
Murphy 22yr 4mth 192cm 89kg
Brown T 22yr 5mth 192cm 86kg
Daicos J 23yr 5mth 178cm 77kg
Lipinski 23yr 9mth 187cm 84kg
Brown C 24yr 179cm 80kg
Wilson 24yr 10mth 194cm 86kg
Johnson 24yr 7mth 193cm 85kg
Noble 25yr 1mth 180cm 73kg
Maynard 25yr 7mth 189cm 93kg
DeGoey 26yr 1mth 188cm 92kg
Moore 26yr 3mth 203cm 100kg
Cameron 26yr 9mth 204cm 101kg
Grundy 28yr 203cm 108kg
Adams 28yr 7mth 181cm 84kg
Crisp 28yr 7mth 190cm 90kg
Hoskin-Elliott 28yr 8mth 186cm 81kg
Madgen 29yr 192cm 95kg
Mihocek 29yr 3mth 192cm 97kg
Elliott 29yr 8mth 178cm 79kg
Howe 31yr 10mth 190cm 85kg
Cox 31yr 1mth 211cm 109kg
Sidebottom 31yr 4mth 184cm 84kg
Roughead 31yr 6mth 200cm 100kg
Pendlebury 34yr 4mth 191cm 90kg


looking ahead five years from now, assuming every one now 28 and over is gone, you've got only got Moore, DeGoey, Maynard, Quaynor, Josh D. as your 'older players', and you then need your current youngsters to grow into your middle bracket.

It is easy to fall into the trap of 'he is young' and therefore he will get a lot better as he gets older.

Personally, i think you need to be showing some skills above and beyond what any athletic young fella who trains as a full time athlete would show, in order to be optimistic about being an A grader in the future.

Of the 17 players above who are 21 or below (that's a lot!) i would say only Henry, Ginnavan and Nick D, are in this category at the moment - and even of them, Henry can't kick, Ginnavan can kick which is really good but not sure of his other attributes, and Nick D gets lots of the ball and is really neat, but not really showing exceptional match winning ability at this stage.

As someone said earlier, you need to get a handle on young players pretty quick on whether they will make it. You could just as easily reserve 5 or 6 places for top up mature recruits in their mid twenties who can play immediately, rather then a lot of kids who won't end up making it anyway and spend 3 or 4 years clogging up your list.

[uuuuu..... The LoneSTAR]

[Big T]

[Pete 70]

Keep fighting the good fit WL; your post was such a great tonic. I was there at that game in 87. I had such high hopes for Athos, but then I though I saw something in Fatui. Good friend of mine is very senior at one of the Sydney clubs - made the simple point that you need people around you who have won things. Thinks we are on the right track with the coaching staff. I’m excited and again love all your posts Warburton Lad

[derkd]

[masoncox]

The problem is a guy called Derek Hine.
He is still there.
He really has not much of a clue when it comes to recruiting.

[Lazza]

[RudeBoy]

Well said Laddy.

My only concern however, is that while we have a great group of young up and coming small and mid-sized players, with loads of potential, I fear we are almost totally devoid of likely KPPs. Especially with Roughead and (probably) Howe close to the end of their careers, we will need to recruit a big strong full back and a genuine power forward, before we can realistically hope to truly become a force to be reckoned with again.

[Big T]

[Harrysz]

This is an excellent post from Warburton Lad, as are all of his posts. Gee I miss those training reports.

So how valid is WL's comparison with 1987? Clearly we will have to wait a few years to find out. Leigh Matthews of 1987 had more head-coaching experience than does Craig McRae of 2022, but not much more. Who would've thought that 9 of those players that got thrashed in round one of 1987 would go on to become premiership players in just three years! As it happened most of the young players developed nicely, we had some luck (hardly any injuries) and there weren't 17 other teams we had to contend with.

It's been said that history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes. So, the analogies aren't precise but there are striking similarities. Making good drafting choices is critical and luck plays a part too - eg 2013 - Scharenberg had 3 ACLs and hardly played - Freeman had cruelling hamstring injuries and didn't play at all. Also critically important is recruiting - eg Doug Barwick, Luke Ball and Darren Jolly.

I haven't been too concerned this year about how many wins and ladder position and so on. More than that, all I've wanted to see has been improvement and I thought I was seeing that until last Friday night. The Bulldogs aren't really a great side this year and seeing how they smashed us in the first quarter was very disappointing - so Warburton Lad's message of optimism and patience was timely.

[warburton lad]