Have We Improved?

[Piethagoras' Theorem]

We haven't looked like beating Hawthorn in 4 years, the fact we had them on toast while they're still as strong as ever is enough for me to say we've improved. That and we haven't really been belted in any game we've lost except for 1 or 2.

[think positive]

[loki04]

We are playing better footy then last year and easily.

You don't sack coaches halfway through a rebuild unless things go direly wrong, we aren't at that point yet.

[loki04]

[matrix10]

[Dangles]

Have we improved? Who knows? Half our team was injured last year so there was no way of knowing how good they were.

[thompsoc]

[matrix10]

[thompsoc]

[droversdog65]

Haters gotta hate so forget em.

For YEARS now we have laboured under the yoke of poor kicking for goal, it's time we fixed it - and properly at that.

Firstly we need a real goal kicking coach and we need some straight kickers of course. Sadly our mids have also been getting a beating - it's partly due to players being out injured or carrying injuries but it does highlight a slight lack of quality depth in this area as well.

What's the minimum we can get away with?

We need a genuine goal kicking KPF - if necessary throw the kitchen sink at him to land him. This really should be non-negotiable as every team needs a 'go-to' KPF - Cloke doesn't fit because he's too bloody unreliable in front of the big sticks - so it's up to Bucks, Hine and Co to scour the country to find one for us.

We desperately need improvement in the specialty coaching roles, most especially in the forward line and goal kicking areas. If needs be Bucks needs to swallow his pride - or shelve his perfectionism - and take a part time, proven kicking coach.

After that we need to look at improving the depth quality of our midfield stocks - let us not forget that Swan is near the end and Pendles isn't far behind - they may be fine at the moment but we need replacements very soon.

[MightyMagpie]

Interesting OP.

Injuries have cruelled them, but have we got enough out of our recent high draft picks? Plenty of upside if we can get them on the park playing as we hope.

2012 #18 Grundy 7, 15, 16 =38 games
2012 #19 Kennedy 12, 8, 4 = 24 games (many as sub)
2012 #20 Broomhead 0, 8, 11 = 19 games
2013 #6 Scharenberg 0, 2 = 2 games
2013 #10 Freemen 0, 0 = 0 games
2014 #5 De Goey 13 games
2014 #9 Moore 6 games

They have played only 102 out of a possible 330 games to date or 31% of games. Without doing the analysis, I would guess that the average for top 20 draft picks is well above 50% (especially midfield types).

This lack of getting games into our high draft picks (mainly through injury) may be why the the publicly mooted premiership window is creeping backwards.

[Member 7167]

[Pies4shaw]

That's an interesting point you make, too, MightyMagpie.

From 2013, it is desperately disappointing that Freeman hasn't been on the park at all and I confess to being fairly underwhelmed by Scharenberg, so far (although I readily accept that he hasn't played much footy in the last three seasons, so he's coming from a long way back). Nevertheless, in that draft, we also recruited Langdon and Marsh with our remaining picks and they both look much more likely to have impressive careers than most players taken in the pick 20s.

From the previous draft, Grundy has been solid, Broomhead has looked like he will be a player and the jury is still out on Kennedy (although I am not as negative as many others because I know he can use the football well - I just don't know why he can't when he's in the seniors - it isn't just the pace of the game because he suddenly ceases to be able to perform set kicks from marks and frees, as well). In 2012, Collingwood also recruited Ramsay, Oxley and Frost, all of whom have looked capable at times, along with Dwyer, who was recruited for the short-term and did a solid job in the role that was required of him.

Thus, the games from players recruited in 2012 (137) so far is 8th, without allowing for the number of picks (so, we took 5, whereas the Kangas took 9, GWS took 8, Footscray took 7 etc) and is probably a fair bit better than average. The 76 games so far from our 2013 recruits is also mid-table. Last year's draft presently looks "better" with the first three recruits (De Goey, Moore and Maynard) all playing a number of senior games and looking like footballers.

To put a little flesh on the bones of that debate, Footscray is presently out in front with its 2012 recruiting but that is because it has a combined 95 games from picks 5 and 6 and 31 games from a F/S, so the 26 from its pick 21 is about comparable to Kennedy or Broomhead and well behind Grundy. Melbourne also did very well (just behind Footscray) but it had picks 2 and 4 and a F/S (Viney) who was widely touted as one of the top few players in that draft.

By contrast, Footscray is way behind us with games played by its 2013 picks (although Bontempelli, taken before our first draft pick, is obviously a great player).

Of course, the long-run is the thing with all of those recruits and, at the moment, it's too early to tell whether we have recruited a dynasty or a great VFL team.

But, on what I've seen, it looks to me like Collingwood has drafted or rookied 9 players who all look appear to be capable of performing as long-term senior players (De Goey, Moore, Maynard, Langdon, Marsh, Grundy, Broomhead, Ramsay and Frost). That's without taking into account Kennedy, Oxley, Scharenberg, Freeman or the 4 picked later last year, none of whom have yet been on the senior park (Goodyear, Manteit, Abbott and Cox).

I have based the figures I've used on this (you probably know this but I mention it for anyone else that would like to have a look at these issues for themselves):

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_draft_summaries?year=2012&t=N&s=G

I haven't checked how up to date it is (although it does have the same numbers as you for each of the 7 players you've listed) but it is a useful historical record of drafting for anyone who is interested. The summary information across clubs is also available there.

[MightyMagpie]

Yeah our second round and later (including rookie) picks have fared pretty well ... the old Hine specials.

I guess my focus was aimed at the top end (expected to be more elite) talent. While none of them are confirmed busts yet, we have struggled to get them on the park and I have no doubt that has affected our performances to date and will affect how quickly we can move back into premiership contention.

[swoop42]

The dogs making Melbourne look like the rabble they are.