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David 
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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| David wrote: | | 4) This is not a form ladder in the sense of measuring recent form (say, just last week's or last five weeks'). The aim is to map teams' performances over the entire season to date. This was a point that confused many people last season, so let me make this clear: round 1 results remain as relevant as round 15 results. The distinction here is significant and wholly deliberate. |
If you were to just assess the last three weeks, I think we've been quite poor. Possibly below North, Richmond and Adelaide. But why omit rounds 1-3 or 1-4 from consideration? Seems a bit arbitrary.
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"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| John Wren wrote: | | what does your ladder look like using a four week window, i.e. the last four rounds? going back to round one is too big a span. we have lost three of the last four. that is no form. |
No, we haven't. 2 and 2. |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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| David wrote: | | David wrote: | | 4) This is not a form ladder in the sense of measuring recent form (say, just last week's or last five weeks'). The aim is to map teams' performances over the entire season to date. This was a point that confused many people last season, so let me make this clear: round 1 results remain as relevant as round 15 results. The distinction here is significant and wholly deliberate. |
If you were to just assess the last three weeks, I think we've been quite poor. Possibly below North, Richmond and Adelaide. But why omit rounds 1-3 or 1-4 from consideration? Seems a bit arbitrary. |
But take into account the entire season and it is kind of just the AFL ladder, with a bit of a twinge for quality of opposition played. If each team played each other by Round 17, then these ladders would perfectly align to the AFL ladder then right?
Not sure we have been below Richmond who had lost 3 on end including ourselves?
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One team, one dream - the Pies and this year's premiership |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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| Albert Parker wrote: | | But take into account the entire season and it is kind of just the AFL ladder, with a bit of a twinge for quality of opposition played. If each team played each other by Round 17, then these ladders would perfectly align to the AFL ladder then right? |
Exactly. But until then, the ladder is insufficient. Consider the fact that Port sits 4th on the ladder at the moment while North Melbourne sit 12th; yet, North have clearly been the better-performed so far of the two. I guess that's pretty much the point of this exercise.
If you were to look at the last three rounds in isolation—which, to reiterate, this ladder doesn't do—you'd have to conclude that Richmond have been travelling better than us. They've lost to Fremantle by a much smaller margin than we did, beaten Port in much more impressive fashion than we beat St Kilda, and lost to the best team in the comp by a little less than we lost to the third best team on form. I think we've performed a little better than them over the course of the season so far, but probably only because of our win in round 4.
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"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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John Wren 
"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | John Wren wrote: | | what does your ladder look like using a four week window, i.e. the last four rounds? going back to round one is too big a span. we have lost three of the last four. that is no form. |
No, we haven't. 2 and 2. |
yes, i realised that last night after posting and didn't bother amending it. for some reason i had factored in the hawks loss and forgot about the richmond win.
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Purveyor of sanctimonious twaddle. |
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Captain_MyCaptain
Joined: 25 May 2006
Location: home
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How can you have North above Port?
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The window is open my friend! |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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^ Not sure if serious. 
_________________
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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jack_spain 
Joined: 03 May 2008
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I will argue that percentage is the best indicator of form rather than points for winning matches. On that basis the ladder looks like this:
1. Essendon 151.5
2. Hawthorn 131.2
3. Port Adelaide 122.9
4. Geelong 121.4
5. Sydney 121.3
6. Adelaide 120.0
7. Fremantle 115.0
8. West Coast 112.6
9. Carlton 111.2
10. North Melbourne 109.5
11. Richmond 107.9
12. Gold Coast 98.6
13. St Kilda 95.6
14. Collingwood 95.1
15. Brisbane 72.8
16. Western Bulldogs 71.1
17. GWS 57.4
18. Melbourne 55.0
That looks about right to me and explains why there is so much angst around among Collingwood supporters. |
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Captain_MyCaptain
Joined: 25 May 2006
Location: home
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| David wrote: | | ^ Not sure if serious. |
North has not beaten a top 8 team from last year whereas Port has beaten both Crows and Eagles. North form is poor to say the least. Port form leaves North form for dead. 
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The window is open my friend! |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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I think your form ladder is spot on David.
Jack off in pain.... you are a dead set tool!
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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jack_spain
Joined: 03 May 2008
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| Skids wrote: | I think your form ladder is spot on David.
Jack off in pain.... you are a dead set tool! |
When was the last time a side with a percentage of 95 made the finals genius?  |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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It's round 8 you fool!
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Sydney won the 2005 flag, after round 7 their % was 89.10.
Eat that shit fa brains!
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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jack_spain
Joined: 03 May 2008
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| Skids wrote: | Sydney won the 2005 flag, after round 7 their % was 89.10.
Eat that shit fa brains! |
Sydney 2005 had some genuine hard-nut stars and Paul Roos for coach.
We'll see what happens as the season unfolds, but I doubt we are the Sydney Swans of 2005, you charmer. Are all West Australians as crude and poorly educated as yourself? |
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Duff Soviet Union
Joined: 16 Aug 2010
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| jack_spain wrote: | I will argue that percentage is the best indicator of form rather than points for winning matches. On that basis the ladder looks like this:
1. Essendon 151.5
2. Hawthorn 131.2
3. Port Adelaide 122.9
4. Geelong 121.4
5. Sydney 121.3
6. Adelaide 120.0
7. Fremantle 115.0
8. West Coast 112.6
9. Carlton 111.2
10. North Melbourne 109.5
11. Richmond 107.9
12. Gold Coast 98.6
13. St Kilda 95.6
14. Collingwood 95.1
15. Brisbane 72.8
16. Western Bulldogs 71.1
17. GWS 57.4
18. Melbourne 55.0
That looks about right to me and explains why there is so much angst around among Collingwood supporters. |
It's been proven in every other league world wide that points / goals scored compared to allowed (i.e percentage) is indeed a better predictor of future quality than wins and losses.
So, I do think our bad percentage is a bad sign. With that said, we've beaten four of the teams ranked 9-13 on that table and haven't played the other one. But we haven't beaten any of them easily. We lost somewhat competitively to the 7th placed team on their home turf and have been pantsed by the top 2. I'd say looking at that shows we're fringe top 8, which in this case is exactly what the ladder says. This week I'd expect a somewhat competitive loss to the Cats, who should be good enough to beat us but I think are a bit overrated right now.
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"We ain't gotta dream no more" |
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