14 wins (56 points) to play finals (currently on 36 points)

[Skids]

[RudeBoy]

Missing JDG, Cox, WHE, Checkers, Elliott, Mitchell and possibly still Howe, tells me that we are in great danger of losing to the Dogs. I'm still tipping us to win, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us drop this one. I'll be happy if we can win 2 out of next 3 games, but thrilled if we manage to win all 3.

[Big T]

With our draw and injuries, just making the finals will a massive effort and put the fear of god into the other contenders

[LaurieHolden]

After 11 rounds, according to the latest from Wheelo Ratings simulations, we're a 38.80% chance for the Top4 and 74.70% for the Top8.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

[What'sinaname]

[What'sinaname]

The injury list suggests we'll lose to WB and Melbourne and the North game isn't a certainty either.

We could be 12th / 13th this time next month

[Pies4shaw]

Collingwood remains the only undefeated team in the AFL over the last 8 rounds.

It's possible the Pies will lose to a team that has managed 5 wins in 11 rounds (against the 10th, 15th, 16th and 17th sides and GWS in the middle of a form slump that has seen them lose 3 of the last 4 and win the 4th by 4 points against Geelong - a team in a slightly worse form slump that has seen them lose 4 in a row), not least because the game is being played at their postage-stamp-sized arena.

But I wouldn't be expecting a loss.

As for the Pauperoos, it is true - in a literal sense - that beating them is no certainty - but they have won just 1 of their last 32 matches (the dead rubber win in the final round of 2023 that served only to lose them Harley Reid). Their average losing margin this year is 52 points and they haven't ended any game this year within 4 goals of their opponent. If Collingwood lost to that rabble it would be more than unexpected.

[K]

[BazBoy]

Season 2022 12 wins Dogs —eighth spot
“. “. 2023 12 wins Syd——eighth spot

Both seasons 15 and 16 needed to make 4th

We are on 28 (7 wins) with 12games to play so if season follows last two then 5 wins could see us 8th and if we get a fair slice of injured soldiers back
it will be interesting

[Jezza]

6 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (28 points)

Based on Fly's metric we're going to need to win 7 of our last 11 to qualify for finals. It's likely 14 wins is an overstatement and it might require only 12 or 13 wins instead to qualify.

We're just over the halfway mark of the season now:

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (N) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)

R13 - Melbourne (H)
R14 - North Melbourne (A)
R16 - Gold Coast (A)
R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[What'sinaname]

That's a nasty run

Got to play the top 4 teams 5 times.
Gold Coast away
A resurgent Hawthorn team

All mighty tough games

Geelong
North, Richmond and Lions (G)

These are ones we should win

[David]

Not overly concerned about North, Gold Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn or Richmond – win those five (hopefully getting players back into the team long the way) and we should be nearly there. And even if we drop one of those, Geelong's eminently beatable too. I tend to agree with most that Melbourne on King's Birthday is a long shot given our outs.

It's the last four where things really start to get challenging. One win (say, against Brisbane) may be enough, but I think we'd want to be winning at least two of four if we're to enter the finals with any kind of form, and we may need to even just to qualify.

[warburton lad]

Two observations:

1) we most probably will make the eight (anywhere between 5th and 8th).
2) no matter where we finish in the eight, no side will want to play us if we have anywhere near a full list. especially if McStay impacts upon return.

I believe that we have the talent to emulate what Western Bulldogs did in 2016.

Whilst a Top Four finish would be great, it is not essential for us to be Premiers.

Floreat Pica.

[Jezza]

7 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (32 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (N) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)

R14 - North Melbourne (A)
R16 - Gold Coast (A)
R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[RudeBoy]

Two observations:

1. We will make the top 4.

2. We will play the Swans in the Grand Final.