Full 2014 ladder predictions and explanation.

[derkd]

Well with two odd weeks before the season proper. Here is my stab at a comprehensive ladder prediction: happy to be told where I am right, wrong or indifferent. please also feel free to leave your own predictions.

1.Hawthorn - Could be like Collingwood circa 2011 come out all guns blazing and beat everyone under the sun only to run out of legs late in the season. Interestingly, the squad only had 3 weeks break over Xmas...could this be a factor? In reality I think they are still the team to beat. they traded well in the off-season bringing in Ben McEovy to bolster the perceived ruck weakness. The impact of the 'Buddy Trade' will remain a unknown until later in the season, or until injury to Roughead which may expose a lack of height in the forward line. Hawthorns greatest threat could still be...well Hawthorn...complacency can never be underestimated.

2.Sydney- I am not sold on the Tippet Buddy combo, they could just get in each others way(what of the team resentment to Buddies pay packet?). Also they have a list (particularly the back line) that is ageing. I would argue allot is going to depend on forward line (and team) cohesion this season that will decide where they finish.

3.Fremantle - They are good enough, and should finish top four. But really they cannot afford not too. I would argue after three, or is it four, Grand final losses now to his name? Ross Lyon, must be the most nervous coach in the comp. His game plan is good enough to get teams to the Grand Final... However, cracks appear under real pressure of the last day in September. Possible ruck weakness with the age of Sandilands also cannot be discounted, however, they preformed well without him for periods in 2013.

4.Collingwood - Agree with many on here that free of injuries (of which we have had plenty over the last few years). We have both the talent and the right mix to make top four. And, even though I am his supporter Bucks must be slightly nervous about the year ahead given his contract situation. My only real concern with our squad is in the ruck, as much as I love Grundy and Witts and would argue both are a genuine talent for the future. I remained concerned that both are very young and may struggle to ruck a full season. Our next in line is 36 years old this year. We lack a ruckman in the 23 - 29 year old bracket with experience. This may or may not come back to hurt us later in the season. Saying all that I would still argue we are more then capable of top four finish.

5.Essendon - As much as it pains me to say it, I would argue this season the Bombers are capable of anything. They have both the talent and the fire power to go deep into September. They do have problems. Firstly how much did the ASADA issue take out of them last year, in a psychological sense? And will this start to show later in the season? Secondly, much like Collingwood they lack ruck depth. Already Bellchambers has gone down for a extended period. This damages their attacking options as Ryder can no longer afford to be pushed forward. I think fifth is about where I see the Bombers barring no major injuries.

6. Kangaroos - NEED TO LEARN TO WIN CLOSE GAMES (FULL STOP). Possibly a little shaky in the back line. Certainly, have the talent to be a force but are yet to put all the parts together.


7.Adelaide - A side that does have the midfield quality to be a great team. And could finish higher then seventh. However, forward line must be a real area of concern. Eddie Betts is not a key forward. Walker is coming off a Knee, Pods is not getting younger, Jenkins has been hit and miss. Could be higher, in the same breath, they could also miss the eight completely.


8. Geelong - I for one have been predicting the demise and demise of Geelong for years, and for years they have proved me wrong. This is what great teams do I guess. The old stager's who I keep thinking will fall over keep playing well. HOWEVER, at some point they will have to fall. I think this year could be it. And again I could be wrong.
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9.Richmond – I had this mob in my predictions for a top eight (even four) last year. For all the talent they seem to have an uncanny ability to “Richmond” things up. a way to finish 9th. So this is where I have put them. They are a team that could knock over Hawthorn one week, then the next find a way to lose to GWS at home by a point with two seconds on the clock. Until they learn consistency, I have no faith.

10.Port Adelaide – Are actually very unlucky not to be in my top eight. My concern with Port is simply the youth factor. Port have a very young list which may face the issue that the young stars of last year in Wines and Wingard – who flew under the radar of most teams in 2013 will certainly be focused on much more closely in 2014. We also cannot discount the ‘second year blues’ factor for the younger players. Having said that, they do have the quality to be in the bottom half of the eight – all things working out.

11. GC Suns – They are coming, mark my words. Could well finish 9th or even in the top 8 if things work out. However, much like Port I think they are still a year or two off being a real threat. I do think that a number of other teams in 2014 will get the same nasty surprise the Pies got in 2013 when they rocked up to Metrecon and were run off their feet.

12. Carlton – The old enemy as much as I hate them (and I think we all do). I freely admit I might have been a little hard having them under the Gold Coast. I think they will finish higher possibly even in the eight. I do not think, however, that Daisy is the answer to the Blues fans prayers (even fully fit). Carlton’s problems run much deeper. To start with the forward 50 arch might as well be a giant ditch made deeper by the loss of Eddie Betts. Carlton are yet to find a real forward focal point, and those they have in (Menzel –only second year, Waite – age and injuries, Casboult – yet to find his feet, and Henderson – needed in the backline) remain problematic. Secondly, Malthouse i have nothing but admiration for the man (who will always remain a Collingwood great). However I am very much unsold on the boundary line game plan he employs for the reason that it relies on pin point passing (for which Carlton are not noted) and secondly on midfield leg speed (also which Carlton do not possess in abundance).

13. West Coast – Adam Simpsons himself has admitted the team could be in for a “bumpy ride” learning his game plan. Depending on how quickly the team adapts to him. And mitigating any injuries (of which the Eagles have taken a heavy toll over the last few years), will dictate where the Eagles finish. Another looming problem is in the ruck. Dean Cox must surely be nearing the end of his great career. And for all his undeniable talent Nic Nat has been unable to shake off continuing injury problems.

14. Bulldogs – Rebuild Rebuild Rebuild . This must be the mantra at Whitten Oval for 2014.Plenty of young talent on the list. But a fair few players nearer to the end of their careers (see: Murphy, Morris, Giansiracusa, Boyd and even Cooney).

15. Melbourne – Have turned a corner, I don’t think any real football fan would wish the fiasco that has befallen the Melbourne Football Club the last few years upon even their worst enemy. With a new (talented) coach and a few decent players on the list I can see the Dees being far more competitive and getting out of the bottom three.

16. St.Kilda - Some dark years ahead for the Saints. I would argue that we shall look back on the Lyon years and say that they held on to a few too many ‘stars’ for too long, and didn’t get the game time into the youth. Still far too many ageing greats ready to hang up the boots – Jones, Hayes, Riewoldt, Montagna, Schneider, Fisher.

17. GWS Giants - Like the Gold Coast, a team that will be a force. However, the youth, while blindingly talented, still remains very much raw. With the additions of experienced heads in Shaw and Mumford Will defiantly help win more games than last year, Might finish higher and have a genuine Coleman Medal chance in young Cameron.

18. Brisbane Lions – Hope I am wrong, but if the mass exodus of players (or at least attempted exodus) witnessed at the end of 2013 is anything to go by, we might well, witness an unmitigated disaster unfolding for the Lions in 2014. Questions of player and board room unity and the position of coach and staff must be a ongoing worry. As well as the pending futures of players such as: Brown, Moloney, McGrath, Merrett and Staker. I am sensing the spoon may be headed to the Lions den.

[3rd degree]

" I am sensing the Spoon maybe be headed to the Lion's Den" - I like this sweeping statement, I would enjoy seeing Cake Tin Head recieve the 2014 Spoon!

[Dave The Man]

Do agree with what you said about Collingwood in that the Ruck could be a Weakness as we have 2 Kids who have played less then 10 Games.

So both have Great Futures is that they might be still be on the young side. Still 2-3 Seasons away from playing Consistent Footy. They be up and down during the season

[stui magpie]

Fair call there, good stuff.

In reality you can throw a blanket over 6 through 12 as all fighting for the bottom 4 of the top 8 positions.

Top 3 fairly predictable, bottom 3 is a bit harder but I'll pay your picks.

[gurugeoff]

Can't go past St. Kilda for the wooden spoon. I reckon they are positioning themselves for another couple of no. 1 draft picks for the next two years.

It's kinda stupid that teams get rewarded for being pissweak.

i agree with the top three. It's hard to read at the moment what we will do, so i'll agree to go with fourth for now.

[Skids]

I think freo are guna slide ... starting from round one!

[Albert Parker]

Can't see Adelaide being top 8.
Forward line suspect and rucks too.
Made the finals 2 years ago on the back of a very favourable draw.

[HAL]

Do you have any idea what I am talking about?

[derkd]

So at the halfway mark of the season (roughly). i felt it was timely to re-visit and evaluate my 2014 ladder. Some appear to be on course (see Brisbane's decline and Melbourne's lift in fortunes). And some I clearly did not pay enough credit (Port and Gold Coast)....And Carlton...well what can i say...

[Damien]

The bombers won't be there either but MOST importantly you were one of the few in this joint who thought we'd be OK this year (me too).

All in all not a bad predicted ladder pre-season. Good work.

[derkd]

Thanks Damien,
I will re-visit this at the end of year...I guess only then can i really test my prediction skills. lol....yeah I guess the Pies could still end up anywhere yet, still only mid-season....long year but thus far I think we are heading in the right direction.

[David]