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Dave The Man 
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| Post subject: Proof of Stats can Lie |  |
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| Quote: | DAYNE Beams is the most valuable recruit of the season and his Brisbane Lions teammate Allen Christensen is not far behind him, statistical software program Aphex has found.
The Collingwood premiership midfielder left the Magpies at the end of last year in what shapes as a win-win deal for both clubs, with the Lions landing Beams and the Magpies receiving pick five (Jordan De Goey) and Jack Crisp.
The Pies also received pick No.25 – which they swapped for Kangaroos midfielder Levi Greenwood – while the Lions acquired Collingwood's fourth-round draft pick (No.67).
According to Aphex, the Lions can take early bragging rights in the deal, with the software program ranking Beams, who has played every game and averaged 29 disposals, the best recruit of 2015.
Aphex is a program used by several AFL clubs in their list management and recruiting departments. It ranks every player in the competition based on their projected WAR (Wins Against Replacements).
The formula has been devised and developed by Australian-based baseball talent identification experts including Brett Ward, who is an international scout for the Baltimore Oriole |
Crisp has had Huge Influence on the Side and In Face we are a Better Side with Crisp.
You could say Lions are as bad or as worse with Beams in there side
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-06-19/lions-land-recruit-of-the-year
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I am Da Man |
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didick
didick
Joined: 17 Jun 2009
Location: Brisbane
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Yeah I found this a strange article, DTM.
For one, it really didn't say how the WAR is calculated. I remember leaving the Gabba after Rd 1 and listening to the muppets on the radio here and one had Beams BOG. I couldn't believe it. He had lots of disposals, which it turned out were mostly handballs, backwards.
And the biggest thing is, yes, maybe they have done well getting Beams to their team. However there is no way it's a win-win. I'm sure the analysis doesn't compare to Beams v Crisp + De Goey + Greenwood!!
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"The night is a very dark time for me" Chaz Michael Michaels |
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thompsoc
Joined: 21 Sep 2009
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No doubt Beams has been great and he is a big loss for us.
But, half way thru the season the question should be:
Beams or Crisp and DeGoey and Greenwood?
I think most would choose the latter.
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we don't eat our own at collingwood we just allow them to foul our nest. |
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doriswilgus
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Location: the great southern land
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| Yes,that's true^.Three players are always greater than one,unless they're complete duds.But that obviously doesn't apply here. |
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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As usual, it is very silly to compare these stats when the season is not even over yet. What happens if Beams gets a season ending injury next week?
The fairest method is to compare the 3 Collingwood players to Beams after 2 seasons at the very least.
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Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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MagpiesTheGreat
Joined: 01 Dec 2014
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| In Eddie we trust |
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swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
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The fact that the list doesn't include Crisp for whatever reason equates to a fail for mine.
Varcoe has been good for us but Crisp has been even better IMO.
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He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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F W I W and a few might find this interesting, John Deeble ( scout for Red Sox and Australias '' Mr baseball '') spoke last year on the W A R talent identification program. Is been around for a while in baseball and Deeble believed as many as 5 / 6 A F L clubs will be using it by the end of 2015. He wouldn't reveal the clubs.
Its a program that's designed to tangibly represent the difference a player makes to the clubs win loss ratio.
I believe last year, the highest rating was Ablett at something like 2.7 games difference to the G C S winning with him as opposed to without him over a season. ( yes, I know, you would think it would be higher )
I believe ultimately, the program will be tweaked to show an AFL players contribution in terms of points gained or saved per match rather than games won or lost.
Rumour has it that the Kangas pursued Del Santo on the back of this program.
All its saying is that Beams is proving to be a major contributor to their performances (I know they have been crap but basically they would be a lot worse without him ) From what I remember, its a program that is weighted against players who haven't played many games simply because there is just not enough match day experience to draw on within all the programs parameters. In other words, Jack Crisp wouldn't get the chance to come out ahead of Beams with this program until Crisp maybe gets in another 100 or so games with Pies.
Don't sweat it Dave, we all know how valuable Crisp has been. |
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Kwah-LeBaire
Joined: 15 Feb 2010
Location: Adelaide
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| Post subject: Re: Proof of Stats can Lie | |
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That's the baseball terminology which has evidently been adopted/adapted to AFL with a slight (but not meaningful) name change: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball
The film very much oversimplified the main thrust of sabermetrics which was pretty simple in suggesting that economic principles should be applied to baseball franchises and you should buy "assets" (players) the market undervalues and sell those the market overvalues. At the time of the book OBP was undervalued and BA and fielding were overvalued, but that changed pretty quickly. Obviously the main thrust of work in sabermetrics has been to more accurately value players' contributions and there have been and are several different models for doing that.
Anyway, although this is in its infancy in the AFL I have no doubt that this (or similar systems) as it/they develop will be the way of the future for managing AFL lists and salaries.
EDIT I should add that it would be silly to merely compare the WAR for Beams vs Crisp/De Goey/Greenwood because (in a salary cap league like the AFL) salaries ( ie cost per WAR) is relevant and there is a large "future" element in De Goey (and Crisp for that matter). So in valuing each side of the trade you would need to project forward for those matters and also make assumptions re the risks of those players nominating for draft when contracts expire or FA/RFA. It can all be modelled but involves a lot of assumptions. It is a bit easier in MLB because players are tied to clubs for the first 6 MLB years - 3 at league minimum salary and 3 arbitration years (generally below market - I don't have the historical %s handy, but something like 40, 60, 80 % for years 4, 5 and 6).
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All We Can Be
Last edited by MightyMagpie on Fri Jun 19, 2015 9:12 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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thompsoc
Joined: 21 Sep 2009
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The problem with models from weather to economics is
the assumptions. In football the assumptions cannot be mathematically
accurate.
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we don't eat our own at collingwood we just allow them to foul our nest. |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| thompsoc wrote: | The problem with models from weather to economics is
the assumptions. In football the assumptions cannot be mathematically
accurate. |
Yes it is the old "ass" "u" "me" thing, but from weather to economics modelling is done because it provides the best foundation (albeit an often flawed one) to look forward. The judgment of those making the assumptions is important as is doing sensitivity anaylses to look at the effect of changes in various assumptions.
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All We Can Be |
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Didaksgoal 
Joined: 12 Mar 2004
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Beamer is a gun, no questions asked.
For what we got in the Beam's trade along with Lumumba , we are doing better than OK......(Greenwood aside due to injury). Crisper is a natural footballer, and the plus with him, he kicks goals ,just like Beamer, a goal kicking mid (but certainly not in his class). Varcz has been very good too, he's proven me wrong so far.
Go the Pies! |
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thompsoc
Joined: 21 Sep 2009
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| MightyMagpie wrote: | | thompsoc wrote: | The problem with models from weather to economics is
the assumptions. In football the assumptions cannot be mathematically
accurate. |
Yes it is the old "ass" "u" "me" thing, but from weather to economics modelling is done because it provides the best foundation (albeit an often flawed one) to look forward. The judgment of those making the assumptions is important as is doing sensitivity anaylses to look at the effect of changes in various assumptions. |
Absolutely true.
Well said.
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we don't eat our own at collingwood we just allow them to foul our nest. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| As an economist I've always loved this definition of econometrics (which is basically economic statistics) as "a straight line drawn between an unrealistic assumption and a forgone conclusion". |
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