2021 Race for final 8

[David]

I've seen some pretty lazy attempts at breaking down the race for the top 8 on AFL.com.au and elsewhere in recent weeks, so have decided to have a go at it myself – have a look and see what you think!

Firstly, while it's seemed like a number of teams are battling it out for 8th spot alone, West Coast's poor form – particularly if they lose against Melbourne tonight, as you'd think they might – has actually opened up two top 8 spots. Here's the relevant portion of the ladder as it stands:

7. West Coast 10–9* 95.9%
8. Greater Western Sydney 9–1–10 96.4%

9. Essendon 9–11 103.4%
10. Richmond 9–11 100.1%
11. St. Kilda 9–11 88.2%
12. Fremantle 9–11 87.7%
13. Carlton 8–12 93.3%

Despite claims to the contrary, Carlton are still very much a mathematical chance for the top 8 – but it's West Coast's spot they would need to take, not Greater Western Sydney's. That's because GWS play Richmond, and the winner of that match (due to Richmond's percentage) is guaranteed to finish the season higher than Carlton. But if West Coast lose the rest of their matches (entirely possible given their form and who they're playing) and a number of other results go their way, Carlton can still overtake them on percentage and make it.

Otherwise, it's still pretty difficult to predict which two of these seven teams will play finals this year. Given their percentage, I think it's fair to say that St Kilda and Fremantle are out if they lose another game. Otherwise, I think it's possible but unlikely that a team could make it with only 10 (or 10-and-a-half) wins. Here's how I think the next two rounds will go:

Round 21:
Melbourne d. West Coast

Round 22:
Geelong d. St. Kilda
Essendon d. Gold Coast
GWS d. Richmond
Port Adelaide d. Carlton
West Coast d. Fremantle

At this point, Carlton, St. Kilda, Richmond and Fremantle would be mathematically out of contention, with only Essendon (10 wins) still a chance to take the place of West Coast (11) or GWS (10.5).

Round 23:
Brisbane d. West Coast
Essendon d. Collingwood
GWS d. Carlton
Richmond d. Hawthorn
St Kilda d. Fremantle

Under these outcomes, this would be the final ladder:

7. Greater Western Sydney 11–1–10
8. Essendon 11–11

9. West Coast 11–11
10. Richmond 10–12
11. St Kilda 10–12
12. Fremantle 9–13
13. Carlton 8–14

If everything above goes the same but Richmond beat GWS, you instead get:

7. Essendon 11–11
8. West Coast 11–11

9. Richmond 11–11
10. GWS 10–1–11 (and so on)

And if Richmond beat GWS and Fremantle beat West Coast, the outcome would be:

7. Essendon 11–11
8. Richmond 11–11

9. Greater Western Sydney 10–1–11
10. West Coast 10–12
11. St Kilda 10–12
12. Fremantle 10–12
13. Carlton 8–14

(As you can see, if we can beat Essendon in the final round, they in turn miss out in all of these scenarios.)

That, I think, covers most of the likely outcomes. Here, just for fun, is the maximum chaos scenario:

Round 21:
Melbourne d. West Coast

Round 22:
Geelong d. St. Kilda
Gold Coast d. Essendon
GWS d. Richmond
Carlton d. Port Adelaide
Fremantle d. West Coast

Leaving the ladder at the end of Round 22 as:

7. Greater Western Sydney 10–1–10
8. West Coast 10–11

9. Fremantle 10–11
10. Essendon 9–12
11. Richmond 9–12
12. Carlton 9–12
13. St. Kilda 9–12

Round 23:
Brisbane d. West Coast
Collingwood d. Essendon
Carlton d. GWS
Hawthorn d. Richmond
St Kilda d. Fremantle

Final ladder:

7. Greater Western Sydney 10–1–11
8. Carlton 10–12

9. West Coast 10–12
10. St. Kilda 10–12
11. Fremantle 10–12
12. Essendon 9–13
13. Richmond 9–13

So I guess, whatever your disposition – e.g. "Some men just want to watch the world burn" vs "Any result is fine so long as Richmond finish 9th" – this might help in deciding which teams to barrack for in these matches in the next couple of weeks (personally, I'm happiest so long as Essendon and Richmond don't make it!)

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Well done David.

I think the battle for 8th will be the winner of the GWS and Richmond match.

Depends on where this is i feel it will be in perth.

West coast win tonight and this shores up 7th for them.

8TH GWS Essendon richmond can make it

Even though they won v north i feel tigers wont make finals.

[K]

It's an exciting race. Really, there are half a dozen teams that are not worthy battling for 7th and 8th spots.

Carlton are now done.

WC are favoured against Freo, who will have many missing.

GWS vs. Richmond is a huge match. Hope Toby gets off on final appeal!!

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

GWS v tigers is an elimation final but in round 22 but gws has that all important 2 point buffer though.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

a lose for tigers mean more for them then it does gws gws is still within 2 points of the tigers regardless of result too

[piedys]

Great work David; it's kinda fun to know the finals effectively have started in rounds 22 & 23 [natural selection?]
Many more permutations to play out.

The media will ramp it up by the conclusion of round 22, when all the mathematical probabilities have been reduced to 9 games, save for any dead-rubber results...

It would be nice if we could do some damage to Brisbane or Essenscum's chances, but i'm far from confident.

[David]

Thanks Dyso!

With tonight’s result, Richmond are now very much in "mathematical chance" territory – basically relying on the same results as Carlton above to make it (both teams will be officially ruled out if either West Coast or St. Kilda win this weekend, with an Essendon win probably also putting them out of reach of Richmond on percentage).

Giants will most likely finish top 8 now, but are still vulnerable if they lose their last game, with Essendon and one of either Fremantle or West Coast potentially passing them in that scenario.

[piedys]

[David]

St Kilda and Carlton have now bitten the dust. Richmond and Fremantle will join them if the Eagles win tomorrow; otherwise, it’ll still be a five-team race going into round 23.

[David]

With Essendon and Fremantle winning, here’s the situation at the end of round 22:

7. Greater Western Sydney 10–1–10 98.9%
8. Essendon 10–11 107.2%

9. West Coast 10–11 94.9%
10 Fremantle 10–11 89.0%
11. Richmond 9–12 97.8%

The size of Essendon’s win more or less puts Richmond out of contention – they have about a 160-point gap to make up with Essendon, which would mean us beating Essendon by 80-plus points and Richmond doing the same to Hawthorn (plus other necessary results).

On a more realistic note, here are the games that matter next round:

Round 23:
Brisbane vs West Coast
Carlton vs GWS
Essendon vs Collingwood
St Kilda vs Fremantle

The situation is pretty straightforward: if Essendon and GWS win, they’re in. West Coast need to win and one of those teams to lose, and Fremantle need to win and for two of the three other teams to lose. Essendon can lose and still make it if both West Coast and Fremantle also lose, and GWS can lose and still play finals so long as two of those three teams lose. Looking most likely at this stage that it’ll be GWS and Essendon, but we can still ruin the Bombers’ chances, which is something to look forward to (not that I hold out much hope after last night).

Personally, I’d be happiest about GWS and Fremantle getting through.

[Pies4shaw]

The big news is that, if results go as expected (ie, Richmond beat Hawthorn, Essendon beat us and Brisbane beat West Coast), it is very likely that last year's premiers will be crowned "Ninthmond" once more.

[David]

That, at least, is something to look forward to!

[Jezza]

^ I don't think "Ninthmond" will happen because the Hawks will knock off the Tigers in Clarkson's farewell game.

[K]

^ Yeah, Hawks are pretty strong favourites now (1.62).