The queue for September

[David]

We’re getting close to a stage (and fingers crossed we remain there!) of having nearly a full list to choose from. We’re also getting close to a stage where we lock in the team that will take us into finals.

This was our selected 23 on Saturday vs Gold Coast:

B: Jeremy Howe, Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard
HB: Oleg Markov, Nathan Murphy, John Noble
C: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Scott Pendlebury, Josh Daicos
HF: Beau McCreery, Brody Mihocek, Pat Lipinski
F: Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Taylor Adams
R: Darcy Cameron, Nick Daicos, Tom Mitchell
I/C: Isaac Quaynor, Billy Frampton, Bobby Hill, Jack Crisp
Sub: Harvey Harrison

To this lineup we’ll be adding Jordan De Goey and Steele Sidebottom in the next two weeks. Barring further injury, that means two players will need to make way. I think most of us can agree that Harvey Harrison’s position is most at risk, though after that it gets hard. Markov, Hoskin-Elliott, McCreery and Frampton are the only ones I can possibly imagine being dropped, and all would be stiff. And whichever one of those is unlucky enough to miss is, I think it’s fair to assume, going to be at the front of the queue to come straight back in if an opening arises.

I was thinking of this "queue" while watching some of the VFL game today. We had no fewer than 17 AFL-listed players line up against Frankston, and more than a few of those would slot in nicely right now if called upon. And as much as we hope they won’t, injuries do happen, and we may be forced to draw on our depth in September. So who’s in this queue, and where? Or, to put it another way, who out of the players we have in reserve will fit in best and provide the most impact if called upon?

Here’s my list, in order, with number of 2023 games played so far in brackets:

Group 1: AFL-ready
1. Ash Johnson (12): Has hit a form slump of late, but he’s been a key part of our structure all year, and we all know his capacities in terms of contested marking and goalkicking. Even if he doesn’t break back in beforehand, I expect we’ll call on him at some point during the finals and that he’ll be in the 26 on grand final day at the very least.
2. Dan McStay (5): We obviously got him in as a first 22 player, but haven’t quite seen where he fits yet and injuries seem to be an ongoing problem. When he’s ready to come back, I assume he has to bide his time in the VFL until a spot emerges, but he is an experienced AFL footballer and has played in finals as a Lion four years running.
3. Jack Ginnivan (8): A potential match-winner who can generally be relied on to kick goals when needed. Seemingly a bit down on form or out of favour lately and his VFL form doesn’t seem that impressive, but he’s someone I’d feel extremely confident about running out for us on grand final day. I still think we would have beaten Melbourne if he’d played.
4. Trey Ruscoe (1): The one AFL match he’s played this year was exceptional, and he was incredibly unlucky to be dropped; I assume he’d have seen more game time if he was in literally any other position but defence (given the stocks we have back there), and that he’s trusted to slot in and excel if needed.
5. Harvey Harrison (3): Probably goes back to the VFL now for a stretch, but hasn’t really done much wrong since his debut – has good goal sense and his efforts around the ground are generally positive, too.
6. Trent Bianco (0): One of the biggest indicators of our success so far this year is that this guy hasn’t been able to get a senior game. An exceptional kick, has already shown his ability to stand up in big matches last year (including kicking a big goal in the preliminary final) and has done everything that could be expected at VFL level. I don’t know when or if he gets his chance, but I would be perfectly happy with him being named, say, the 23rd man in a final.

Group 2: Proven VFL performers, some question marks for AFL
7. Nathan Kreuger (2): One gets the sense he could be a match-winner, but it’s hard to know whether his body will hold up long enough to allow him to be. Certainly has the right attributes, so if he can actually string some VFL matches together and keeps up the good form at that level, I assume we’ll see him in the senior side again at some point.
8. Aiden Begg (0): Seems to be putting together some excellent form at VFL level, and one would assume he’ll get a chance if Cameron and Cox go down again (though he hasn’t been playing in the ruck so much lately). Probably not quite fully AFL ready and earmarked more for next year and beyond.
9. Josh Carmichael (1): Some here really rate him and there’s no questioning his VFL form, but I’m a bit less sure about what he brings us at AFL level. Was very good in his first couple of matches last year but I think he struggled towards the latter stage of the season, and I’m not sure I can see him breaking back in again this year.
10. Reef McInnes (5): Seems to be one of those players who excels at VFL level but offers little at AFL level. I don’t want to hang him based on one game, but his last outing wasn’t great, and I’d personally much rather play Ginnivan or Harrison if this small forward position is available.
11. Finlay Macrae (0): as with McInnes, I just don’t quite see it despite his consistently strong VFL performances, and the fact that he wasn’t picked when we were short of midfielders in recent weeks suggests that the selection panel may feel similarly.
12. Will Kelly (2): Only saw glimpses of him at AFL level this year, but he seemed pretty good when he got his chance. Unlike some above him on this list, his VFL form seems a bit more indifferent of late, so I’m not quite sure where he stands.
13. Tom Wilson (1): Has never quite been able to make an impression at senior level, and I’d be surprised if he gets another chance.

Group 3: Lesser-known quantities
14. Jakob Ryan (0): Was an emergency this week, which suggests he might be the next debutant in the frame. What I’ve seen of him in the VFL has been impressive. As with the other players in this group, I don’t see him getting an opportunity to play finals and expect we’d turn to those with experience at senior level first if desperate.
15. Ed Allan (0): The other one on this list who’s been named an emergency recently. I know a lot here are impressed with him and expect him to debut this year, but not sure how likely that is at this stage.
16. Oscar Steene (0): Is there a situation where our ruck division falls over yet again and we turn to him? Precedent suggests not, but it seems he’s really tearing it up in the VFL lately so who knows. Obviously a precondition for him playing any senior football this year would be for both Cox and Cameron to be out injured and for us to decide not to run with Frampton or Begg in that role.
17. Arlo Draper (0): Apparently one of our best against Frankston, and seems to be doing okay stats-wise at least. Being in his second year and out of contract might make a senior debut towards the back end of the season more likely.
18. Cooper Murley (0): Same situation as Draper but not sure if his form has been as strong.
19. Joe Richards (0): Missed a fair bit of VFL through injury lately. Doubt anyone expects him to play AFL this year and there’s no urgency.

Does this seem like a fair ranking? If not, who would you have up the top?

[Boot]

Interesting situation for Collingwood to find themselves with lots of depth players knocking on the door, but not actually busting it down in my opinion.
I think the most interesting player yet to come back into the team is the high priced recruit Dan McStay... does he come straight into the team and if so who does he replace? I think it would be a big ask to put McStay straight back into the team as the player he would most likely replace from the team that put the Suns to the sword would be Mason Cox or Darcy Cameron and I wouldn't be dropping either of those two at the moment.
I think Jack Ginnivan is also going to struggle to get a game unless there is an injury to Elliott, McCreery or Hill, and even then he's going to battle to get a game ahead of Harvey Harrison, Reef McInnes and even Fin Macrae or Josh Carmichael all of whom I think are playing better than Jack at the moment.
I don't think Frankston is a powerful team that would test our VFL team but there was a lot to like about the Collingwood VFL team's demolition of them on Sunday. Players to catch the eye as being a level above the VFL standard included;
Bianco - his disposal and reliability coming off half-back was exemplary. I think it is his lack of pace is holding him back but his strength in the contest seems to have improved so he looks to be still an improving talent worth persisting with.
Ruscoe - Outstanding defending game played with flair and attacking purpose, he is very unlucky not to be playing in the AFL instead of Billy Frampton but Frampton didn't do his reputation any harm with a very good utilities game on Saturday vs the Suns playing Back, Forward and in the Ruck at various times during the game. The challenge to Ruscoe is if he is willing to wait in the reserves till Howe retires at the end of next year or if Murphy gets injured.
Macrae - he is killing it at VFL level. Unfortunately there is such a jump in standard and pressure between VFL and AFL, especially in the maelstrom of the inside contests, that it would take at least a couple of weeks for any player to adjust to the extra tempo of the game when playing as an inside mid. Hence unless there is an injury to Mitchell and / or Adams I am stuggling to see Macrae getting a game. Especially with DeGoey and Sidebottom to come back into the team.
Carmichael - See the same as for Macrae. Much as I hate the idea of loosing talented players, surely both Macrae and Carmichael would be looking for transfers to other clubs to get more opportunity in the AFL at the end of this year if they can't break into the AFL team before the end of this year. I just hope that Collingwood can get sufficient compensation for them via equitable trades if they do take that option to look elsewhere. e.g. Ben King from Gold Coast for a trade of Macrae and Carmichael plus some exchange of Draft picks would be a handy trade if the Suns were resigned to the fact that King will be heading back home to Melbourne.

Ash Johnston - He looked very casual in his approach on Sunday. Did nothing to indicate that he is too good to be not included in the AFL team. Seems to be lacking purpose in his game at the moment. Perhaps not enough hunger in his game during the cold winter months. Hopefully he will regain his mojo by August. I think Reef McInnes has more long term potential than Johnson.

Nathan Kreuger - Still looks to lack the finishing skills to top off his efforts. Appears to be one player who needs to focus on the basics of improving his reliability of skill execution, as well as maintain his fitness. Needs to be more than a Kamikaze force on the field to earn a spot in the team ahead of the likes of Frampton, Mihocek and Cox.

Will Kelly - he may be the classic case of a big bloke taking a few years longer than other to reach his potential as a footballer. Seemed pretty comfortable at the VFL level on Sunday, albeit Frankston is a struggling team. I still have hopes Kelly will continue to develop into a tall utility capable of having an impact at AFL level.

Aiden Begg - Looks to be developing his game very well playing in the ruck and displays very encouraging second and third efforts in the mid-field contests with good vision in finding his team mates with disposals from contested possessions. I just worry that his relatively short height of 196 cm will restrict him to be playing as an outright ruckman in the AFL. Perhaps the best role for him would be that most difficult but important role, if you can find someone to play it well, is that done by Leigh Brown during the 2010 and 2011 seasons. That utility role of playing the third tall forward whist being able to give the ruckmen a break for 5 mins per quarter is the future for Begg? At the moment it seems that role is being gifted to McStay or even Frampton. For Begg to grasp that role I think he needs to play CHF in the VFL for the remainder of this season and I think he can do it.

The juniors who I think are showing promise but are probably not going to get an opportunity this year include Ed Allan, Jacob Ryan, Oscar Steen and Arlo Draper so I hope they all get to further develop their stamina, strength and skills with another pre-season upder their belts to emerge in 2024 as very good AFL standard players.

Unfortunately I don't see a future beyond this year for Tom Wilson or Cooper Murley both of whom have progressed this year at VFL level but I doubt they can step up to AFL level in the short to medium term.

[Haff]

Great problem to have this!

JDG and Sidey MUST come back in. Assuming no more injuries you have to think thats at the expense of someone who is a bit stiff.

I think Lipinksi comes out. WHE is been very solid this season but there is always hard luck stories.

McStay is the more interesting one. Easier to say Frampton who again has done nothing wrong and Cox just keeps kicking goals or doing the right things.

Best 22 from the side playing last week probably sees:
In: JDG, Sidey, Mcstay.
Out: Lipinski, WHE, Frampton, Harrison
Sub: Lipinski.

[Pies2016]

Nice work, David. Bit like a form ladder for players 😉

When good coaches like Fly say “ when we bring players in, we set them up to succeed “ that generally means wherever possible, we’re going to back you in for a block of games so you don’t feel the pressure of perfection that comes with every passage of play you’re involved in “.
The point to all that is, when players get these blocks of games and don’t meet expectations after being given every chance, they tend to fall down the pecking order in the eyes of the club until that same player shows something more for next time around.
Don’t be surprised if the club rates Harrison as a better fit than Ginnivan RIGHT NOW. Harrison was certainly playing ahead of Ginnivan and Harrison was only omitted because we have finally achieved a decent injury profile.
From the outside looking in, it feels like the club may have just made that same judgement on Johnson for the short term. We gave you every chance, you showed a bit but as the weeks rolled on, you showed less and you have to now get better if you want another chance.
I don’t know why anyone doubts the presence of McStay in our best 22. The club didn’t invest in a 150 game, big bodied endurance athlete who prepares well, to play VFL. As soon as he is ready, he will come straight back in and no one will be happier than Miochek. So effectively, that’s another forward in front of Johnson.
McInnes is the wildcard in all this because I don’t think hes yet been afforded the chances in 2023 other players like Ginnivan and Johnson have received. His 6 goals on the weekend would catch the eye, so maybe he’s the next one to be given the “ set em up to succeed “ opportunity. McInnes certainly has many more strings to his bow than Johnson. He is also about 5 years younger than Johnson and still looks like a kid who needs to grow into body, so there’s plenty to work with.

I don’t see the others getting a look in this year because we have so much depth and versatility in all other areas of the ground other than the forward line. There’s some decent players in our VFL team like Bianco, Ruscoe and MacRae ( maybe ) who may not play senior footy again unless they are given that opportunity at another club. You could mount an argument to suggest a couple later picks for these guys is a win, win for all involved.

[gurugeoff]

i can't see any justification is dropping Frampton for McStay, who has hardly played a game, and from what i can remember, hardly touched it in the games that he did.

Lipinski is looking better each game he is back.

so, yes, nice problem to have, and almost no chance for anyone in the reserves to break into the side, barring injuries.

[Pies2016]

^^^

I don’t see Frampton competing with McStay. One was recruited as a workhorse big forward and the other as a key defender. I guess it looks a bit cloudy right now because one has possibly exceeded expectations in different parts of the ground, while the other hasn’t delivered much ( albeit only played four full games )
I’m not getting carried away with Frampton kicking a couple goals against that rabble on the weekend. If he can do it ( assuming he goes forward again ) when the heat is on against good opposition, then maybe he does command a spot in the forward line. It was only last September, when McStay was close to BOG in a final playing as a ruckman but I don’t think anyone sees him as a ruckman in this team.
As everyone is alluding to, it’s a pleasant problem to have and what gets lost in amongst all this is that our best 25 odd players are all very versatile too. Its generally easier to shift the best 25 odd around than it is to bring in the 26th player who is a specialist in his position.

[RudeBoy]

Before he even arrived I was sceptical about the value of McStay. Sadly, in the few games he played for us before getting injured, my initial view was only strengthened. In the meantime Frampton has proven himself to be a very valuable swingman, performing well in the ruck, up forward as well as in defence.

Thus, in terms of our best 23, the inclusions of Sidey and JDG are the only improvements I can see to our current line-up. That obviously would mean dropping Harrison and, imo, one of Markov, WHE or McCreery. Whoever misses out will be extremely unlucky. Between now and September, however, injuries are likely to occur, opening up opportunities for others. All in all, we are in fantastic shape.

[Damien]

This is a great position to be in, but history says that unfortunately there will be injuries. In regard to David’s opening post we don’t ‘Lock in’ a finals team. Look what happened last year. Kruger and Bianco came into the Prelim. It’s horses for courses come finals time. One of the big pluses for us this year is we will have our VFL team playing finals as well, so players will be staying on the field and ready to come in if needed.

[perthmagpie]

Well Checkers is out this week. So on the surface it’s looks like a team with no in form marking forward vs a team this week with 3 talls who can all mark. So perhaps we have to bring in McStay at a minimum and even Johnson. I still rate McInnes who was unlucky to cop too many roles as sub and player held over earlier in the year. He has had hardly any AFL level continuity. He has also had to play as a leading forward but was recruited to be a mid. So it’s far too early to make judgement on him. He will get his chance again eventually and hopefully becomes the player he has the talent to be.

As far as the other VFL players go we have to be patient. Bianco excels at VFL and shows leadership. But I wonder if his strengths are not weapons. We will find out if he can improve enough in the next year and be stronger in the contest. I like the look of Ryan. A very confident and aggressive kid. Looks like he is learning to balance defence with attack which takes time. Allan reminds me of Mundy. Has been a bit quieter than early in the season. Has the tools to make it but it’s only his first year. Ruscoe is ready to slot in at any time. He is very unlucky not to be playing senior football. Kreuger needs more composure in the contest and the air. He is so diligent and aggressive he keeps getting collision injuries as we all know.

[inxs88]

Great deep dive with pretty accurate insights David.

[dalyc]

It’s an interesting position for both the Club and players.

Some players may be considering requesting trades for more opportunity. Think Bianco, Carmichael, Ruscoe, Macrae, Johnson. It’s likely though that the Club would favour trades with clubs in re-builds such that the loss of some of these players wouldn’t overly strengthen oppositions. Think Philips going to Hawks, Stephenson to North. Grundy to Melbourne doesn’t conform but I guess they were the only suitors.

For the players then, it’s a decision of more first team action but in a club 5 or more years away from contending. Or, sticking around as depth hoping that retirements, injuries, suspensions give them the finals playing experience all players would crave.

[lazzadesilva]

The players need to choose between remaining with a team that is right in the premiership window, wait for the right opportunity to play seniors or move to another team that may or may not play finals footy. Some players may want to just play senior footy without necessarily playing in finals. Interesting to see what transpires.

[David]

For someone like Macrae you'd think opportunities will inevitably arise with Pendlebury and Sidebottom presumably hanging up the boots in the next year or two. I guess it just depends on how long you're willing to wait. It wasn't until Josh Daicos's fourth year on the list that he became a regular fixture in our senior team, for instance, and there were people like me (as embarrassing as it is to admit now) who didn't think he'd make it.

[dalyc]

[David]

I certainly wasn't the only one! But yes, I did have my doubts early on. Very happy to have been proven wrong of course.

This thread is probably the best place to find some of the naysayers who ended up with egg on their face:

https://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=85761