Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

[K]

...
I'd assume it's an all in market (all teams) and there's one winner with the highest total points (handicap + wins).

Yes, agree now. See my previous post (latest).

[K]

The handicaps are:
Ade +6, Bris +14, Carl +32, Coll +4, Ess +6, Fre +20, Geel +8, Haw +10, NM +10, Mel +2, Port +14, Rich +0, StK +24, Syd +10, WC +4, WB +20, GC +48, GWS +10

[Skids]

I was poking around for line betting for the whole season.
AT TAB, under 'Handicap', it has '2019 AFL Season Handicap
Adelaide (+6)
Brisbane (+14)'
etc.
(all at $15).

How does this work?

Just had a squiz, I have no clue. Would love to know though? It must be for Minor Premiership

You might be on to something here

It says regular season only and Dead Head rules apply, whatever that means

Ok found it. Yes, it's an 'all in' handicap. IE - the winner is the one with the most points (win points + handicap points) at the end of the season. 14/1 are the odds.

Dead heat rule = if there are 2 sides on equal points, the pay out is half each ie: 7/1, if there are 3 sides on equal points, the pay out is a third each, about 9/2 etc...

[K]

So TAB's ladder prediction is:

Rich
Melb
Coll/WC
Ess/Ade
Geel
Haw/NM/Syd/GWS
Bris/Port
Freo/WB
StK
Carl
GC

They don't think much of Port, do they?

[Skids]

If the same market was on last years ladder...

Richmond 72 + 0 = 72
WCE 64 + 4 = 68
Pies 60 + 4 = 64
Hawks 60 + 10 = 70
Melb 56 + 2 = 58
Swans 56 + 10 = 66
GWS 54 + 10 = 64
Cats 52 + 8 = 60

Outside the 8... GC 16 + 48 = 64
BL 20 + 14 = 34

Richmond would have beaten the Hawks by 2 points

[K]

TAB think Bris are going to be big movers, then (even if only enough for =12th).

[Skids]

Either that, or they've been backed in a bit. This causes the bookies to adjust the market.

If there was a mountain of money on say Richmond, you may well see their handicap firm in to -2 or -4 for example. In that case you may also see the Pies drift to +6, Melb + 4 and GC out to +54.

The bookies are smart, they adjust their market.... so they can't lose.

[K]

Oh, they adjust the handicap too?
They don't do that for the H2H line. They just predict the margin, offer 1.92 or something either way, and that's it.

[Skids]

Oh, they adjust the handicap too?
They don't do that for the H2H line. They just predict the margin, offer 1.92 or something either way, and that's it.

You will find the margin quoted alters though. Again if there was a heap of money for the Pies v GC at the line and it opened at -34.... that line would move out to - 42, or whatever. They constantly watch the weight of money and alter the odds/margins accordingly.

Look at the PIES v Cats round 1 game.
SB have a line payout of $1.90 Pies are -8.5, Cats are +8.5.
Have a look at that on game day, it will have changed. Imagine if Grundy, Treloar, Cox & JDG are out of that round 1 team! People would be throwing $$$ at the Cats at the line... the line would change.

[K]

Yes, but that's because the bookies' own predictions change. They back themselves.
I'm told the line is what the bookies think, while the odds are largely what the punters think.
(But maybe that depends on the bookie and the market... Maybe I should poke around for more info... But maybe it doesn't make a difference to the punter anyway...)

[TaylorMade]

If the same market was on last years ladder...

Richmond 72 + 0 = 72
WCE 64 + 4 = 68
Pies 60 + 4 = 64
Hawks 60 + 10 = 70
Melb 56 + 2 = 58
Swans 56 + 10 = 66
GWS 54 + 10 = 64
Cats 52 + 8 = 60

Outside the 8... GC 16 + 48 = 64
BL 20 + 14 = 34

Richmond would have beaten the Hawks by 2 points

Skids to the rescue !! That makes much more sense.

[TaylorMade]

The handicaps are:
Ade +6, Bris +14, Carl +32, Coll +4, Ess +6, Fre +20, Geel +8, Haw +10, NM +10, Mel +2, Port +14, Rich +0, StK +24, Syd +10, WC +4, WB +20, GC +48, GWS +10

So do we think its a good bet K ? Its not bad imo have the odds dropped to 14-1?

The way I see it, even if Richmond beat us round 2, it only puts us on level ground. If we beat them, were already +8 infront. Considering we both win our first game.

Does anybody think Fremantle will be significantly better?

[RudeBoy]

Collingwood
Eagles
Richmond
Giants
Melbourne
Adelaide
Port
Essendon
Geelong
Hawks
Sydney
Brisbane
Freo
North
Footscray
Carlton
Saints
Gold Coast

[K]

...
So do we think its a good bet K ? Its not bad imo have the odds dropped to 14-1?
...

Well, on H2H lines, if the bookies give $1.90 they're giving themselves a 5 1/4 % margin. But on this handicap minor premiership bet, $15 means they're giving themselves a 20% margin. That doesn't sound all that good to me. If they wanted it to be more like their H2H, they would have offered $17.

Unless they've bungled the handicaps for some teams. But then presumably they'd have bungled the H2Hs for the same teams, so you'd still be better off looking at those H2Hs.

[TaylorMade]

How does H2H work? Can they be combined into a multi?