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The "Draw"

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didick 

didick


Joined: 17 Jun 2009
Location: Brisbane

PostPosted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:48 pm
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I'm interested to see what the attendance is like next weekend, against the Blues. 7.10 pm on a Sunday. For a "blockbuster". And it's our home game. Nice way to "equalise" our revenue. In fact we have four Sunday games in Melbourne in the rest of the H&A season. One 3.20pm game, two 4.40pm games and the late game against the Blues. FFS. Crowds are going to be low. Even member attendances will be down.
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Captain_MyCaptain Leo



Joined: 25 May 2006
Location: home

PostPosted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:46 pm
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Currently we are 8 and 4.
My expectations as follows, without any whinging.
........................................................................

Round 14 Saturday, June 21
Hawthorn v Collingwood -- LOSE
MCG 2:10PM

Round 15 Sunday, June 29
Collingwood v Carlton -- WIN
MCG 7:10PM

Round 16 Saturday, July 05
Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood -- WIN
MS 4:40PM

Round 17 Sunday, July 13
Essendon v Collingwood -- WIN
MCG 3:20PM

Round 18 Sunday, July 27
Collingwood v Adelaide Crows -- WIN
MCG 4:40PM

Round 19 Sunday, August 03
Collingwood v Port Adelaide -- WIN
MCG 4:40PM

Round 20 Sunday, August 10
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood -- WIN
PS 2:40PM

Round 21 Saturday, August 16
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions -- WIN
MCG 7:40PM

Round 22 Saturday, August 23
GWS Giants v Collingwood -- WIN
SPO 4:40PM

Round 23 Friday, August 29
Collingwood v Hawthorn -- LOSE
................................................................

8 more wins.
We should/could be 16 wins 6 losses.
Top 4 still a good chance.
Agreed?

Cheers.

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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 3:43 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain_MyCaptain wrote:
Currently we are 8 and 4.
My expectations as follows, without any whinging.
........................................................................

Round 14 Saturday, June 21
Hawthorn v Collingwood -- LOSE
MCG 2:10PM

Round 15 Sunday, June 29
Collingwood v Carlton -- WIN
MCG 7:10PM

Round 16 Saturday, July 05
Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood -- WIN
MS 4:40PM

Round 17 Sunday, July 13
Essendon v Collingwood -- WIN
MCG 3:20PM

Round 18 Sunday, July 27
Collingwood v Adelaide Crows -- WIN
MCG 4:40PM

Round 19 Sunday, August 03
Collingwood v Port Adelaide -- WIN
MCG 4:40PM

Round 20 Sunday, August 10
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood -- WIN
PS 2:40PM

Round 21 Saturday, August 16
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions -- WIN
MCG 7:40PM

Round 22 Saturday, August 23
GWS Giants v Collingwood -- WIN
SPO 4:40PM

Round 23 Friday, August 29
Collingwood v Hawthorn -- LOSE
................................................................

8 more wins.
We should/could be 16 wins 6 losses.
Top 4 still a good chance.
Agreed?

Cheers.


In my opinion, the 50/50 games are:-

Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood

Collingwood v Adelaide Crows

Collingwood v Port Adelaide.

These could go either way due to our current unpredictability and inconsistencies. Rolling Eyes
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John Wren Virgo

"Look after the game. It means so much to so many."


Joined: 15 Jul 2007


PostPosted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 3:50 pm
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we have 4 (top 8 ) and 6 (bottom 10) games.
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Last edited by John Wren on Thu Jun 19, 2014 3:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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M@®© Virgo

1972


Joined: 13 Apr 2003
Location: Victoria - Rowville

PostPosted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 3:50 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't be penciling a win against West Coast over there! We only just beat them here.

I hope I'm wrong but.........

Round 14 Saturday, June 21
Hawthorn v Collingwood -- LOSE
MCG 2:10PM

Round 15 Sunday, June 29
Collingwood v Carlton -- WIN
MCG 7:10PM

Round 16 Saturday, July 05
Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood -- LOSE
MS 4:40PM

Round 17 Sunday, July 13
Essendon v Collingwood -- WIN
MCG 3:20PM

Round 18 Sunday, July 27
Collingwood v Adelaide Crows -- WIN
MCG 4:40PM

Round 19 Sunday, August 03
Collingwood v Port Adelaide -- LOSE
MCG 4:40PM

Round 20 Sunday, August 10
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood -- LOSE
PS 2:40PM

Round 21 Saturday, August 16
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions -- WIN
MCG 7:40PM

Round 22 Saturday, August 23
GWS Giants v Collingwood -- WIN
SPO 4:40PM

Round 23 Friday, August 29
Collingwood v Hawthorn -- LOSE

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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:07 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

M@®© wrote:
I wouldn't be penciling a win against West Coast over there! We only just beat them here.

I hope I'm wrong but.........

Round 14 Saturday, June 21
Hawthorn v Collingwood -- LOSE
MCG 2:10PM

Round 15 Sunday, June 29
Collingwood v Carlton -- WIN
MCG 7:10PM

Round 16 Saturday, July 05
Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood -- LOSE
MS 4:40PM

Round 17 Sunday, July 13
Essendon v Collingwood -- WIN
MCG 3:20PM

Round 18 Sunday, July 27
Collingwood v Adelaide Crows -- WIN
MCG 4:40PM

Round 19 Sunday, August 03
Collingwood v Port Adelaide -- LOSE
MCG 4:40PM

Round 20 Sunday, August 10
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood -- LOSE
PS 2:40PM

Round 21 Saturday, August 16
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions -- WIN
MCG 7:40PM

Round 22 Saturday, August 23
GWS Giants v Collingwood -- WIN
SPO 4:40PM

Round 23 Friday, August 29
Collingwood v Hawthorn -- LOSE


Yeah that looks a more realistic outlook but hey, anything can happen in AFL footy! We can hopefully win the lot (or most) from now on. Laughing Cool
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matrix10 



Joined: 17 May 2009


PostPosted: Thu Jun 19, 2014 6:01 pm
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Much like Marc I think we'll go around 6-4 in the last 10 games.
No idea of which 6 we'll win- we're likely to smashs hawks twice and then lose to scum and brions.


At the beginning of the year (especially after round 1) I think most of us would've taken 14-8 and a 5-8 position on the ladder.

Anything more will be a bonus.
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Johnno75 



Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna

PostPosted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 12:51 pm
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I think we will win 1 of Gold Coast, West Coast or Port Adelaide. Should win at least 6 of the last 10 games. 14-8 should get us a home elimination final. After last season's finish that is a step forward.

Many had us going backwards this season.

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collie dog 

RIP Shelby 11-10-13


Joined: 07 Jun 2010
Location: Shelby Christmas dog

PostPosted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 1:01 pm
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Draw, fixture, smickture. Razz

What it is is a massive FIX! And to think the authorities allow betting on such an obviously FIXED arrangement of games is outrageous! Evil or Very Mad

It's time we started a campaign either to go the way of the EPL and force one home and one away game against every team (the fairest result). or the NFL route of playing each team once a season (rotating home and away on a two yearly cycle).

The EPL teams seem to manage playing over 40 matches a season (including championship, FA Cup, and European tournaments) why can't we? We just have to get used to using larger squads. More value for the fans in this.

The NRL model would see a reduced regular season, but we could introduce an expanded playoff series and even two distinct conferences.

Both those solutions are better than the dog's breakfast we have now. It is a national disgrace!

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Az 



Joined: 25 Sep 2013


PostPosted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 3:58 pm
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collie dog wrote:
Draw, fixture, smickture. Razz

What it is is a massive FIX! And to think the authorities allow betting on such an obviously FIXED arrangement of games is outrageous! Evil or Very Mad

It's time we started a campaign either to go the way of the EPL and force one home and one away game against every team (the fairest result). or the NFL route of playing each team once a season (rotating home and away on a two yearly cycle).

The EPL teams seem to manage playing over 40 matches a season (including championship, FA Cup, and European tournaments) why can't we? We just have to get used to using larger squads. More value for the fans in this.

The NRL model would see a reduced regular season, but we could introduce an expanded playoff series and even two distinct conferences.

Both those solutions are better than the dog's breakfast we have now. It is a national disgrace!


For real? Other than the fact they are two completely different sports, albeit largely endurance based, you can't see why playing 36 games in a season would pose a problem? The fact that those players in the EPL hardly even touch each other is testament enough that the idea of a 36 game home and away season would be disastrous on players bodies. Not to mention when is the last time you saw a 6"10 115kg guy like Wittsy running around kicking a soccer ball for 40 games in a year? I don't presume to be an expert but the average weight of an EPL player would have to be no more than 80 kgs, perfect if all you need to do is run around and kick a ball along the ground.

I'm not disrespecting soccer players I think they're very good athletes to have to run around for 45 minutes at a time. But having to run, jump, kick, chase, tackle, be tackled, bumped, wrestled over the course of an entire game is going to take significantly more physical toll on a body than soccer players.[/b]
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Piethagoras' Theorem Taurus

the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk


Joined: 29 May 2006


PostPosted: Fri Jun 20, 2014 4:23 pm
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Didn't mind our last draw. Was nearly the death of me but the following week was great!
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35forever 

"I feel sick - dada dada dada da"


Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Location: Physical=Sunshine Coast -- Mental=Vic Park

PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:28 pm
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Breadcrawl:
Actually change can be effected. In other countries weight of numbers has made huge changes to professional sports. All it would take is action from a reasonable number of people, supporters and members to be precise as CFC seems incapable of standing up to the AFL, the sole exception being Eddies comment about the draw during the "ED TV" call of the West Coast game. A bit more of that would help our cause greatly!
Using the formula I outlined above (the obvious and simplest way to quantify the facts), one MUST come to the conclusion that the AFL deliberately gave us the pointy bit. When the same method produces the same result over a number of years one can start to point to a deliberate conspiracy. You're simply playing semantics about 'proof' & 'evidence', and well you know it. In America people are executed solely on circumstantial evidence

I didn't say that one must be in the top 4 now to be there at the end, I said I ran the numbers and when added to history they say unequivocally that the 8 tends not to change much after round 10. When I ran the 'ladder predictor', which simply saves a lot of calculating, I came out with a final 8 which varies only in that Sydney & Hawthorn change places, the rest is exactly as you see it now. The methodology I used was to predict wins for whichever side was higher on the ladder at the time of their clash, with larger margins for greater disparity in position.
Obviously things can change, we could be minor premiers and Port could miss the 8, my point was that while things CAN change between round 10 & seasons end, they generally don't.

Quote:
It might tend to happen that way but that is natural when you think about it. If you give a good team a horrible early draw and that team beats the teams they should beat and loses to better teams then that team WILL climb the ladder in the latter part of the season.


This presupposes that having played the top sides early one will then play the easy ones. It doesn't work that way. For a start there's the fact of who one plays twice, where & when one plays them, how long the breaks between games are, psychological factors (which people just don't seem to get) etc etc. In the VFL days your statement would be far more correct as each side played every other side twice, once at home & once away, and in the same order as the first half. (IE: You couldn't get Carlton in round 1 & Rd 24) There used to be other factors, even in those days, but it was far harder to use them to a side's disadvantage as the draw was just that, a draw selected by chance.

Collingwood could of course finish in the top4, but we would need to win every game AND have upsets occur to those teams above us. All I'm saying is that I'd bet my house we remain in 6th, it isn't a fait d'accompli, if it was it wouldn't be a fair bet1


And PS: Evolution, (I know you're not a creationist!!!) is a fact because it provides a basis from which quantifiable predictions can be, and are made every day. The words "theory of evolution" are mostly used to describe Darwin's work in Darwin's time. These days scientists simply call it 'evolution' or 'natural selection'. Shame on you for being pedantic again!!!

Anyway, this is all moot, if we can't beat any of the top 4 sides we aren't in the race and would be better off finishing 18th.

PS: @John Wren. Please excuse me, I clearly missed the sign where it says posts must be brief. I appreciate it must be difficult for you having to post on threads you're not prepared to read. I wish I could think of a solution for your problem.... hmmmm. What could it be? Oh, and my condolences for your expected lack of longevity. Is it a terminal illness? Or have you been convicted of murder in Texas?

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