Our veteran quandary

[duggieboy]

INXS when I saw those ages you've listed, first thought was 'have to get the Prem. this year'.
If we do, at least a couple might naturally hang up the boots.

[npalm]

You're right INXS. Equally concerning is the lack of quality in our under 23 group. There doesn't seem to be enough talent coming thru to replace those that will be retiring in the next year or two.

[RudeBoy]

It's definitely a worry. At the very least, I'd expect 3-4 of those to retire at the end of next season. If we win the flag this year, it may well encourage a couple more to do so as well.

At the end of 2024, perhaps Mitchell, Adams, Sidey and Howe.
The following year perhaps Pendles, Checkers and Cox.
Hopefully we get a couple more years from Elliott and Crisp.

Time will tell, but we certainly don't want to lose half a dozen of our most experienced players at once.
As others have said, it means we need to win this year's flag.

[WhyPhilWhy?]

Just because they're 30?

Mitchell and Crisp are fit and could (could) play another 5 years, like Pendles. Jamie's always a worry, but Coxy will stay tall for a very long time, and started in the game late. Checkers is pretty much indestructible.

I'd much rather it was a managed process over 3-4 years.

[LaurieHolden]

Let's not panic, it's a natural list evolution.
We've had 1 year of Graham Wright / Derek Hine list management combo, and I'm confident they will mould this list and introduce players that we haven't even considered to date.
Additonally, the new ALFPA CBA is yet to be set down, so our salary cap will balloon again.

Generational talent in Pendles and Sidey will cause the most obvious impact. They were our only high draft picks.
Let's all take a moment and thank the AFL Gods for father sons.
Elliott also a generational talent was part of that confusing 2011 pre-draft period.

What I don't know is how much of those contracts are back ended. If they are Dusty like contracts, that's what might hurt us.
If natural attrition occurs to these Tier 1 players, we'll have approx. $5m in salary cap space that will be freed up over the next two seasons.
Now most that will have been allocated to the Dacai, Moore and JDG. That quartet will round out our highest paid players by season end 2024.

Our next generation Tier 1 players in Maynard (2025) & Quaynor (2025) will need to be secured.

Everyone else in the below list we traded in. The same will happen again.

2024* Pendles: 36* (pick 5)
2024* Steele: 33* (pick 11)
2025* Cox: 33* (rookie)
2024* Howe: 33* (trade)
2025* Elliott: 31* (pre draft)
2025* Mihocek: 31* (rookie)
2024* Adams: 30* (trade)
2025* Mitchell: 30* (trade)
2026* Crisp: 30* (trade)

[Ronnie McKeowns boots]

McInnes was supposed to be our young inside bull, but gets played up forward for some reason....

You will always miss players of Sideys and Pendles class, they are generational players and there loss will hurt.

Everyone else imminently replaceable

[Take_a_Screamer]

I would replace Graham Wright / Derek Hine too 'cause they're over 30

[Pies2016]

Very good O P.
I think most Collingwood supporters are aware of our ageing list but when you table them all in order, it actually struck me as a bigger issue than what I originally thought. There’s a lot of serious talent on that list and a couple of them in particular, are generational players.
On the surface, most of the above look like having the capabilities to continue a similar output in 2024 ( given that Pendles and Sidey may have adjusted roles to accomodate maximising their output over an entire season ) Having said that, anyone on that list who currently has a contract for 2025 does become a must watch through the 2024 season. A lot can change with two more off seasons to go before the 2025 season.

What we need to add into this topic, is that clubs have become so much better at manipulating contracts to fit in with the salary cap and list management, so there are an increased number of ways to skin a cat these days. No last contract can wind back the age of these guys but contracts can now be structured in such a way that players can be eased into an earlier exits if both parties agree. In this case, any final year payout would be designed to benefit both the player ( something for nothing ) and club ( a bit of cap relief )

[Pies2016]

McInnes was supposed to be our young inside bull, but gets played up forward for some reason....

You will always miss players of Sideys and Pendles class, they are generational players and there loss will hurt.

Everyone else imminently replaceable

It’s slightly off topic but just to clarify this perennial urban myth about Reef’s mid field capabilities. He never played midfield at the Chargers, he played as a high half forward. He played alongside Rowell and Anderson ( second year U18s ) and Macrae and Bianco ( as first year U18s ) That was the Chargers midfield, so while he exhibits a number of midfield qualities, he would first have to learn how to play that position before he got any chance at playing that role in the seniors.
Personally, having seen a bit of him at TAC level, I’m a bit frustrated with the club not having given him more midfield opportunities by now. Having said that, he’s had a really good month up forward in the VFL, so maybe his best position has now been decided on. The kid is 193cm, works hard and is still only 20, so he has plenty of time but it’s drawing a long bow to think he’s a midfielder when he has hardly played that position in the last 4 or 5 seasons.

Mods may wish to throw it into the Reef McInnes thread

[inxs88]

The irony is that Reef has grown 2-3cm since being drafted and is a unique commodity in that he has blistering pace off the mark when leading and now nearly 6 foot five in height to compete aerially. Given the amount of bags he has kicked this year and predominantly being played (full forward), a third tall spot this weekend allowing Howe to go back makes sense.

Could be a finals wildcard.

[Pies2016]

The irony is that Reef has grown 2-3cm since being drafted and is a unique commodity in that he has blistering pace off the mark when leading and now nearly 6 foot five in height to compete aerially. Given the amount of bags he has kicked this year and predominantly being played (full forward), a third tall spot this weekend allowing Howe to go back makes sense.

Could be a finals wildcard.

Still off topic but I was thinking similarly, particularly if Howe goes back. McInnes is kicking them from everywhere and in a lot of different ways in the VFL, so his goal kicking radar is on song at the moment. He shouldn’t need a lot of opportunities in the AFL to still make a scoreboard impact with the confidence he would have in his goal kicking.

[Geek]

2024* Pendles: 36* (pick 5)
2024* Steele: 33* (pick 11)
2025* Cox: 33* (rookie)
2024* Howe: 33* (trade)
2025* Elliott: 31* (pre draft)
2025* Mihocek: 31* (rookie)
2024* Adams: 30* (trade)
2025* Mitchell: 30* (trade)
2026* Crisp: 30* (trade)

I think we've gone a long way to replacing Pendles and Steele as it is. They are not giving us the same impact that they were giving us even 5 years ago.

Yes, they will need replacing and yep, even now they still stand up from time to time as we need them so y'all can put down the pitchforks. But they are now just good players, not giving us the "generational" output that we recall. We should be able to find players of similar calibre to what Sidey/Pendles have been giving us in 2023. That is 23 possessions, 4.5 tackles, 4.3 clearances (Pendles) and 21 generally good quality possessions off a wing (Sidey). The experience and cool heads under pressure? Well yeah... that will be missed. But these two are no longer superstars

Cox is a pretty modest ruckman. He is good against the rucks that DCam struggles with and we will miss that. But he ain't no Simon Madden

Howe hasn't been the same since breaking his leg against GWS 3 years ago. Again, he is still a good and useful player but he won't be a superstar that needs replacing. I'd say that with Murphy coming on as well as he has, much of Howe's output has been replaced already and I am more worried about Murph retiring due to the concussions.

Elliott. This is one we'll miss. The difference with our forward potency when he's merely out of form is stark enough. He will be hard to replace. We are already full up for small forwards though with Ginnivan unable to get full games half the time. When Elliott goes, we will have someone to fill his spot and he won't be some hopeless dribbler. It will look different and we will need to get used to it working different but I think we have a way forward mapped out there already.

Mihocek. Leading goal kicker for what... 4 years now? 5? McStay turning up gives us some transition for after Mihocek and AJ will probably take the empty spot. Different types of forwards but can be just as effective. He's also been showing the effects of playing as sole key for half a decade and, a couple of recent bags notwithstanding, looked to be in decline already. We were still able to find other paths to goal though and that was before McStay got back in and found his feet

Adams. Already not the player he once was. Will dive on a grenade for us and that sort of tenacity isn't found in every player. Not by a long shot. But we shouldn't have too much trouble brining in an inside mid who, on balance, is just as effective as he's been in the last couple of years

Mitchell. Could be the one who replaces Adams for a couple of years. The two of them barely fit in the same 22 and it looks like Mitchell is the less bashed up of the pair.

Crisp. Crisp's biggest weapons for us are his durability (to date); his ability to halve an aerial contest most times, and his ability to shrug a tackle and break a line. He's so good at the last one that he's won a couple of Copelands doing it. He's going to be hard to replace like-for-like but I reckon he's already peaked and we seem to be going ok. At the least, we have seen that we go ok with him having a down year. Therefore he isn't critical to our success.

So of all those names, I'd guess that it's really only Elliott that I would be overly concerned about right now. Maybe one of Adams and Titch. The rest have already been playing like mere mortals for some time now and we have gone alright. These players will need replacing and they will need replacing with good players as none of them have been playing like chumps but it doesn't seem like an impossible mission and it seems like we have been moving on to life after them for a while now.

[stui magpie]

Just because they're 30?

Mitchell and Crisp are fit and could (could) play another 5 years, like Pendles. Jamie's always a worry, but Coxy will stay tall for a very long time, and started in the game late. Checkers is pretty much indestructible.

I'd much rather it was a managed process over 3-4 years.

Pretty much agree with this. Cox ain't shrinking and could play for another 5 years if we want him to, Mitchell and Crisp will go for at least another 2-3. Checkers is a worry as he cops a battering each week and that must catch up with him sooner or later, Howe I reckon is on his last legs and Sidey may well decide to give it up if we win another flag.

Pendles is likely to play his last season with his Son in the team.

[inxs88]

Think the Howe negativity is a tad unfair. Suffered a couple of impact injuries vs muscle degradation and his recent versatility show his worth. He still kicks it great, runs well and has his leap. Attributes necessary for his retention.

[swoop42]

We are trying to replicate Geelong of last season who showed you're never to old until the moment you realise you are.
That Geelong Premiership side had an average age of 28yr 7mth and 167.6 games. The Geelong side who played last week had an average age of 27yr 2mth and 139.9 games.
It was 11 years between flags for Selwood while it's now 13 for the likes of Pendlebury and Sidebottom. Selwood retired at 34. Pendlebury will be 36 next year.
You don't have to be a genius to know time is running out for these two greats and while some people might find it sacrilege this might well be the last roll of the dice for some of the veterans in our side.

Our side against Brisbane had an average age of 27yr 9mth and 138.3 games so mere spring chickens in comparison to the 2022 Premiers.

So yes we are capable of winning this years flag with all our over 30's but Geelong should serve as a warning that's there is a fine line between being in contention for a flag and simply being out of contention.

If you're prepared to have a mature conversation about it, we haven't been able to produce a flag over the last 12 years while the likes of Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Swan (prior to retirement) and eventually Adams were still in their prime and prowling our midfield.
However what we have achieved this season to date is a testament to the longevity and quality of our veterans.
Still it seems like plain old common sense to believe that players beyond a certain age will begin to show signs of decline and it's probably unrealistic to expect all our veterans to be playing at the same level in 12 months time.

If we go on to win this years flag all those within the club will be rightfully lauded, our strategy endorsed but even in victory I would hope Fly is smart enough to understand the importance renewal could play in making sure we don't become stagnant as a team.
Should we not win the Premiership I would hope Fly is both smart enough to embrace rejuvenation but also confident enough in his position to tap some of our greats on the shoulder should their form no longer be evidently better than younger options next season.