Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[What'sinaname]

Hopefully the media will stop gaslighting people with this cheap fake rubbish.

They still tried to gaslight by saying Biden had a cold.

Anyone with functioning eyes and ears and see and hear the diminished capacity of Biden.

He's a national security risk. The Commander in Chief can't have a mash potatoes as a brain.

[David]

^ Yeah, I saw the thing about him having a cold. Seems old habits die hard. Trouble is nobody's buying it anymore.

And I agree with those who are saying that, election or no election, Trump or no Trump, Biden clearly shouldn't be president right now. Surely the 25th amendment exists for situations precisely like this.

[pietillidie]

^My worry is more that he takes his self-talk too seriously. "I'm Joe Biden, I don't give up in the face of adversity...."

[stui magpie]

Did a bid of reading up on this, the Democrats are screwed.

They can't drop Biden unless he chooses to withdraw. They probably could literally but it would go down like a cast iron hang glider.

If they did drop him, Kamala Harris is next cab off the rank. Apart from the fuss it would cause to drop the Black Female VP for a (likely) white male, there's the little matter that all the funding and donations they've gathered are tied to the Biden-Harris ticket. She can keep the funding if she moves to POTUS candidate but apparently if they lock in another candidate they have to start again with funding. Plus, I think, if they were going somewhere different they would have to go through all the convention bullshit which would present them as a rabble.

Looks like their only hope is to stick with Biden, hope the near 50% of Democrat voters who think he's past it can suck it up and vote for him instead of Trump, then after being sworn in as POTUS they arrange some bloodless coup in the first 12 months where he either resigns, retires or is medically ruled out and Harris becomes POTUS.

[Magpietothemax]

Even Hitler can't believe how the Democrats screwed up:
https://youtu.be/IrZhHLA5i10?si=l2svH2Bvl5gQj_Yu

[Magpietothemax]

[Magpietothemax]

[Culprit]

Watching that debate I witnessed the end of the mighty USA. It's no wonder Putin and Ping are sitting back laughing.

Now with Trump being granted partial immunity, the end of the USA is a lot closer.

[stui magpie]

So now the US Supreme Court has ruled that a POTUS has a level of immunity against prosecution for acts undertaken while POTUS, which has thrown into chaos the raft of charges against him. I understand they've sent the ruling back to the lower court to rifle through all the charges and figure out which ones, if any, they could still prosecute. Meanwhile, Trump has used the decision to appeal against his Hush Money conviction.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-02/donald-trump-immunity-supreme-court-decision/104046210

Shit just gets weirder.

[David]

So many things are broken in American politics, and the presidency and supreme court are two of the biggest problems because they're both much too powerful and unaccountable – something this judgement only reinforces. Would be good if they could tear the constitution up and start again, but failing that there's going to need to be some kind of drastic intervention to put things right. Otherwise they'll just be circling the drain whether or not Trump gets back into the White House.

[What'sinaname]

The media and Dems tried to convince everyone Joe is the fittest and sharpest he’s ever been despite all the warning signs of his ailing health.

A shitshow of a debate and now Biden is doubling down,claiming international travel was to blame for a poor debate. Joe was just a bit tired.

The Democrats campaign is exploding before our very eyes.

[stui magpie]

[Magpietothemax]

[Pies4shaw]

The 538 poll average suggests that Trump has, at present, aboiut a 2% post-debate bump. What it would translate to on election day is a different question, of course. On their election modelling (running various forecasts around the margins of error in the data, rather than just focusing on a "single figure"), they have Trump winning 53 times out of 100 and Biden 47. To be quite clear, that does not mean that Trump is on 53% and Biden is on 47% - what it means is that on their various simulations, Trump is ever so slightly more likely to win, if the election were to be held right now. In other words, it's a coin toss.

Nate Silver sold 538 a little while back to the US ABC (he now runs his own separate site again) and it probably isn't as reliable as it was during the lead up to the last election but, make no mistake, that probabilistic approach is the only useful one for making sense of polling.

Think of it this way - in Texas Holdem, if you have 4 cards of one suit after the flop, the chance of drawing the flush over the remaining two cards is about 35% (a bit under). Most people who play take that as, in effect, "about 50/50" and bet accordingly. Obviously, it isn't, strictly speaking, but the practice serves to make the point that 65/35 isn't too bad, even if you're on the 35. Against that background, 53/47 is, as near as may be, actually level.

[David]

It certainly suggests that there's no reason to assume the debate killed Biden's candidacy, and as with most of these incidents (e.g. Trump's Access Hollywood tape) the news cycle tends to move on pretty quickly.

The catch here though is that it wasn't just a one-off bad debate performance, but rather evidence of a problem that will continue to follow Biden through the campaign. He can't fix it because the problem is, essentially, unfixable – short of loading up on the drugs that the Republicans keep insisting he's being given prior to events.